IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eprcrr/102489.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal policy consistency and implications for macroeconomic aggregates: the case of Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Hisali, Eria

Abstract

The relationship between growth in monetary aggregates and price changes continues to be a subject of considerable debate both in the academic and policy circles. Whereas the more ‘conservative’ policy makers hold that growth in monetary aggregates bear proportionately on prices, ‘liberals’ on the other hand suggest a fairly weak relationship and instead mainly attribute sustained price changes to other innovations (including structural weaknesses and poor productive capacity). This study employed vector autoregression techniques (and its variants) to examine both short term as well as long term interactions between selected macroeconomic aggregates with particular focus on the relationship between money growth and price changes. Results from both the reduced form vector autoregression specification and the contemporaneous structural vector autoregression show a weak causation from growth in monetary aggregates to price changes, but the link between changes in monetary aggregates and prices becomes stronger in the long run. The results also point to a strong relationship between price changes on the one hand and exchange rate depreciation, and past inflation outcomes on the other. The results imply a potential for increased revenue from monetisation, at least up to some feasible as well as the need to focus on other possible sources of price variations. In general, whereas it is possible for the relationship between prices and money to weaken, budget deficits beyond ‘certain financeable limits’ will clearly negate the possibility of attaining other objectives of macroeconomic policy. A natural concern that arises in such a context is one of sustainability and compatibility of the budget deficit with other macroeconomic targets. We also employed the government budget accounting framework to analyse sustainability of Uganda’s current fiscal stance. The results show that the consolidated deficit is consistent with attainment of target outcomes for other macroeconomic variables, most notably the rates of inflation and GDP growth rates. The inflation target has however, been achieved at the cost of an unsustainable domestic debt. From a policy perspective, issuing domestic debt at such a high real interest rates will allow lower money growth but at the cost of future increases in debt service obligations and thus future budget deterioration.

Suggested Citation

  • Hisali, Eria, 2010. "Fiscal policy consistency and implications for macroeconomic aggregates: the case of Uganda," Research Reports 102489, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eprcrr:102489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102489
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Budina, Nina, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization, Fiscal Deficits, and Public Debt Management in Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 293-309, June.
    2. Christensen, Michael, 2001. "Real supply shocks and the money growth-inflation relationship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 67-72, July.
    3. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-415, August.
    4. Buffie, Edward & Adam, Christopher & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1378-1395, November.
    5. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "External Debt, Inflation, and the Public Sector: Toward Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 3(3), pages 297-320, September.
    6. Christopher, Adam, 2009. "The conduct of monetary policy in Uganda: an assessment," Research Series 101712, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal stance; macroeconomic aggregates; structural vector autogression; budget accounting approach; EPRC; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; H62; H63; H69;

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H69 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eprcrr:102489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eprccug.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.