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The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy

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  • Lavan Mahadeva
  • Javier Gómez Pineda

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDPcycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in worldGDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombianbusiness cycle both on impact and even during the first year. We find evidence that,because of inefficiencies in the domestic financial sector, external gains are channelledinto nontradable spending through credit expansions. This creates large appreciationsduring booms. The reverse happens during world slowdowns. These swings in theExchange rate restrict the scope for a countercyclical monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia 5406, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005406
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    2. López, Enrique & Montes, Enrique & Garavito-Acosta, Aarón Levi & Collazos-Gaitán, María Mercedes, 2013. "La economía petrolera en Colombia," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 9, pages 337-406, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Martha Misas A & Juan José Echavarría S & Enrique López E, 2010. "Intervenciones cambiarias y política monetaria en Colombia. Un análisis de var estructural," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-37, May.
    4. Gonzalo Hernández, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Output Fluctuations in Colombia," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    5. Johana Maritsa Hernández Henao, 2013. "Demanda externa, términos de intercambio y el papel de la política monetaria durante la crisis de 2008," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 7, CEMLA.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital inflows; Terms of trade; International Business Cycles; DevelopingCountry; Colombia; Monetary policy; Business Cycle.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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