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Precio del petr�leo y el ajuste de las tasas de inter�s en las econom�as emergentes

Author

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  • Paula Andrea Beltr�n-Saavedra

Abstract

La ca�da en el precio internacional del petr�leo tiene implicaciones importantes en el ciclo econ�mico en las econom�as exportadoras de petr�leo. De hecho, la literatura de ciclos econ�micos en econom�as emergentes presenta como hechos estilizados el comportamiento contrac�clico de las tasas de inter�s y la vulnerabilidad ante choques en los precios de los commodities. Este documento presenta un modelo de equilibrio general, din�mico y estoc�stico (DSGE) para una econom�a peque�a, abierta y exportadora de petr�leo para analizar el efecto de la ca�da del precio del petr�leo. El canal a trav�s del cual un choque negativo en el precio del crudo impacta el ciclo es un mecanismo de acelerador financiero que, end�genamente, genera un aumento en la prima de financiamiento que enfrenta la econom�a. Este mecanismo se deriva de un problema microfundamentado donde el sector petrolero se financia mediante intermediarios financieros internacionales. Varias extensiones del modelo se calibran para Colombia. Ante una ca�da en el precio del petr�leo, se encuentra un aumento en el diferencial de tasas de inter�s, una depreciaci�n de la tasa de cambio real y una ca�da en el producto. Las din�micas simuladas del modelo calibrado para Colombia logran un ajuste adecuado para el producto y la prima de riesgo.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula Andrea Beltr�n-Saavedra, 2015. "Precio del petr�leo y el ajuste de las tasas de inter�s en las econom�as emergentes," Borradores de Economia 13619, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:013619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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