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Constant-Interest-Rate Projections and Its Indicator Properties

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  • Christian Bustamante

    ()

  • Luis E. Rojas

    ()

Abstract

This paper propose indicator variables for the implementation of monetary policy in an inflation targeting regime. Using constant interest rate projections, the notion of a target-compatible interest rate is presented. This variable allows to extract some characteristics that the expected future path of the interest rate have to fulfill in order to be compatible with the target. The specific formulation of the target-compatible interest rate is presented under alternative assumptions over the forecasting horizon (unconditional or conditional forecasts) and the objective of the monetary authority (inflation target or a loss function). The empirical counterpart of the various formulations is shown using a DSGE model for Colombia; a small open economy with an inflation targeting regime.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 696.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:696
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Keywords: Monetary policy; constant-interest-rate projections; modest policy interventions; inflation targeting. Classification JEL: E37; E47; E52.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  2. Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
  3. Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," NBER Working Papers 5046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  7. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Measuring the Natural Interest Rate for the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  9. Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2004. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 224, Bank of England.
  10. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-26, August.
  12. Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "The natural real rate of interest in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0233, European Central Bank.
  13. Carlos A. Huertas & Munir Jalil & Sergio Olarte & José Vicente Romero, 2005. "Algunas Consideraciones Sobre El Canal Del Crédito Y La Transmisión De Tasas De Interés En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001962, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  14. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Luis E. Rojas & Brayan Rojas, . "Estimations of the natural rate of interest in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 626, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  15. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003088, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  16. Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
  18. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
  19. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Policy Interventions? Evidence from a Dynamic Open-Economy Model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 509-544, December.
  20. Bomfim, Antulio N, 1997. "The Equilibrium Fed Funds Rate and the Indicator Properties of Term-Structure Spreads," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 830-46, October.
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Cited by:

  1. Paula Andrea Beltrán-Saavedra, 2015. "Precio del petróleo y el ajuste de las tasas de interés en las economías emergentes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013619, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Paula Andrea Beltrán-Saavedra, 2015. "Precio del petróleo y el ajuste de las tasas de interés en las economías emergentes," Borradores de Economia 901, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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