Estimations of the Natural Rate of Interest in Colombia
Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the statistical characteristics of the data. The second is a multivariate version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter augmented by an economic relationship, HPMV. The NIR in both cases is defined as the trend component of the market real interest rate; then, the NIR may be considered as a long-run real interest rate anchor for monetary policy. The third method consists in estimating a semi-structural model for a small open economy. In this case the NIR is defined as the interest rate that does not affect the output dynamics in the short run and assures output and inflation convergence to their long run equilibriums. This implies that the NIR is a medium-run anchor for monetary policy. Three features are observed in the dynamics of the NIR estimates for the period 2000-2009. The first part of the sample (2000-2003) shows a downward trend, followed by a period of stabilization and upward trend (2004-2008) and at the end of the sample the NIR start decreasing again. The NIR in the last quarter of the sample, 2009Q2, is around 3.1 in average.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): XXIV (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January-June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Durango 54, Col. Roma, México D. F., 06700|
Phone: 52 (55) 5061 6680
Web page: http://www.cemla.org
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.cemla.org Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001.
"Measuring the natural rate of interest,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004.
"A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004
42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
- Elwood, S Kirk, 1998. "Testing for Excess Sensitivity in Consumption: A State-Space/Unobserved Components Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 64-82, February.
- Cowan, Adrian M. & Joutz, Frederick L., 2006. "An unobserved component model of asset pricing across financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 86-107.
- James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000.
"Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?,"
0013, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP so Different?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0692, Econometric Society.
- James Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-component decompositions of GDP so Different?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-18-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0013, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- James Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2002. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Harvey & Chia-Hui Chung, 2000. "Estimating the underlying change in unemployment in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(3), pages 303-309.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2003.
"Searching for the Natural Rate of Interest: a Euro-Area Perspective,"
84, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- JesÃºs Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
- T. Berger & G. Everaert, 2007.
"Labour Taxes and Unemployment Evidence from a Panel Unobserved Component Model,"
Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium
07/478, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie, 2010. "Labour taxes and unemployment evidence from a panel unobserved component model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 354-364, March.
- Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003.
"The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
- Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
- Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
- Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008.
"La tasa de interés natural en Colombia,"
Investigación Conjunta - español,
in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201
Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, . "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 412, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003088, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Filippo Moauro & Giovanni Savio, 2005. "Temporal disaggregation using multivariate structural time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 214-234, 07.
- Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2001.
"A Bayesian Analysis of the PPP Puzzle using an Unobserved Components Model,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
01-105/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Kleijn, R.H. & van Dijk, H.K., 2001. "A Bayesian analysis of the PPP puzzle using an unobserved components model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, .
"The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia,"
Borradores de Economia
202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Chambers, Marcus J. & McGarry, Joanne S., 2002. "Modeling Cyclical Behavior With Differential-Difference Equations In An Unobserved Components Framework," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 387-419, April.
- Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Measuring the Natural Interest Rate for the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Bull, Clive & Frydman, Roman, 1983. "The Derivation and Interpretation of the Lucas Supply Function," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(1), pages 82-95, February.
- James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003.
"Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Morley-Nelson-Zivot state space decomposition," Statistical Software Components RTZ00115, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Luginbuhl, Rob & de Vos, Aart, 1999. "Bayesian Analysis of an Unobserved-Component Time Series Model of GDP with Markov-Switching and Time-Varying Growths," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 456-65, October.
- Santos Silva, J. M. C. & Cardoso, F. N., 2001. "The Chow-Lin method using dynamic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 269-280, April.
- Marius Ooms & Bj�rn de Groot & Siem Jan Koopman, 1999.
"Time-Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
312, Society for Computational Economics.
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007.
"La Tasa De Interés Natural En Colombia,"
Ensayos sobre Política Económica,
Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(54), pages 44-89, Junio.
- Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "The natural real rate of interest in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0233, European Central Bank.
- Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cml:moneya:v:xxiv:y:2011:i:1:p:33-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Laura Sibaja-Jiménez)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.