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Demanda externa, términos de intercambio y el papel de la política monetaria durante la crisis de 2008

  • Johana Maritsa Hernández Henao

    ()

    (Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos)

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    Esta investigación tiene como propósito investigar la respuesta de la economía colombiana frente a un choque a los términos de intercambio y una caída en la demanda de exportaciones. Asimismo, se está interesado en dilucidar el papel que desempeña la autoridad monetaria en presencia de dichos choques. Para tal fin, se calibra un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico para una economía pequeña y abierta. El comportamiento del banco central se modela mediante dos reglas de interés tipo Taylor. En la primera, el banco central persigue únicamente objetivos de inflación. En la segunda, está interesado en la estabilización de precios y del producto. Los hallazgos subrayan una gran vulnerabilidad de la economía a choques externos. Asimismo, la ejecución de una política monetaria anticíclica en Colombia durante la reciente crisis, puede interpretarse a partir del modelo como un escenario donde la autoridad monetaria puso un mayor peso en los efectos adversos de las exportaciones sobre el productos que en los términos de intercambio sobre el PIB.

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    File URL: http://www.cemla.org/PDF/investigacion/inv-2013-02-07.pdf
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    Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA in its series Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers with number 7.

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    Length: 40
    Date of creation: Jan 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cml:docinv:7
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    1. Juan David Prada Sarmiento, . "Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 531, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    8. Pietro Bonaldi & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Importancia de las rigideces nominales y reales en Colombia: un enfoque de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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    14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
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    17. Nicolas Alexis Cuche-Curti & Harris Dellas & Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2009-05, Swiss National Bank.
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