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Demanda externa, términos de intercambio y el papel de la política monetaria durante la crisis de 2008

  • Johana Maritsa Hernández Henao


    (Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos)

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    Esta investigación tiene como propósito investigar la respuesta de la economía colombiana frente a un choque a los términos de intercambio y una caída en la demanda de exportaciones. Asimismo, se está interesado en dilucidar el papel que desempeña la autoridad monetaria en presencia de dichos choques. Para tal fin, se calibra un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico para una economía pequeña y abierta. El comportamiento del banco central se modela mediante dos reglas de interés tipo Taylor. En la primera, el banco central persigue únicamente objetivos de inflación. En la segunda, está interesado en la estabilización de precios y del producto. Los hallazgos subrayan una gran vulnerabilidad de la economía a choques externos. Asimismo, la ejecución de una política monetaria anticíclica en Colombia durante la reciente crisis, puede interpretarse a partir del modelo como un escenario donde la autoridad monetaria puso un mayor peso en los efectos adversos de las exportaciones sobre el productos que en los términos de intercambio sobre el PIB.

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    Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA in its series Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers with number 7.

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    Length: 40
    Date of creation: Jan 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cml:docinv:7
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