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Is it Punishment? Sovereign Defaults and the Decline in Trade

  • Jose Vicente Martinez and Guido Sandleris

Sovereign defaults are associated with declines in defaulting countries trade. Are these declines the result of trade sanctions as the trade sanctions argument of sovereign borrowing would suggest? We devise an empirical strategy to evaluate this issue based on the idea that if trade sanctions are causing the declines, bilateral trade with creditor countries should fall more than trade with other countries. We nd that this is not the case. The analysis does not yield evidence of broader punishment strategies including a league of major creditors either. These results contradict the predictions of the trade sanctions theory of sovereign borrowing.

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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Business School Working Papers with number 2008-01.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:2008-01
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Web page: http://www.utdt.edu/listado_contenidos.php?id_item_menu=4994

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  1. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February.
  2. Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 59, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  3. Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 189-206, June.
  4. Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget," Levine's Working Paper Archive 209, David K. Levine.
  5. Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," Business School Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  6. Barry J. Eichengreen & Richard Portes, 1985. "Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 1772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bulow, J. & Rogof, K., 1989. "Sovereign Debt Repurchases: No Cure For Overhang," Working papers 8903, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  8. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  9. Lane, Philip R, 1999. "North-South Lending with Moral Hazard and Repudiation Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 50-58, February.
  10. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
  11. Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1997. "Reviving reputation models of international debt," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 21-30.
  12. Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1989. "Sovereign Debt Repurchases: No Cure for Overhang," NBER Working Papers 2850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2002. "A Gravity Model of International Lending: Trade, Default and Credit," CEPR Discussion Papers 3539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Raquel Fernandez & Robert W. Rosenthal, 1990. "Strategic Models of Sovereign-Debt Renegotiations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 331-349.
  15. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June.
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