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Growth and Adjustment Challenge for the Euro Area

  • Philip R. Lane

    ()

    (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)

This paper reviews the growth record of the member countries of the euro area and assesses the outlook for future economic performance. We describe how the external and fiscal adjustment challenges facing the euro periphery amplify the growth risks facing these countries. We address how growth prospects can be improved by shifts in the macroeconomic policy mix, carefully-timed structural reforms, debt restructuring and the resolution of the existential crisis facing the euro area.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp427.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp427
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  1. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2013. "The Financial Resource Curse," CEP Discussion Papers dp1217, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
  3. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
  4. Raphael A. Auer, 2014. "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 139-197, 01.
  5. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden stops in the euro area," Policy Contributions 718, Bruegel.
  6. Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2012. "Fiscal devaluations," Working Papers 12-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  7. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 10592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
  10. André Faria & Philip R. Lane & Paolo Mauro & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "The Shifting Composition of External Liabilities," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp190, IIIS.
  11. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
  12. Robert Gillanders & Karl Whelan, 2014. "Open For Business? Institutions, Business Environment and Economic Development," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 535-558, November.
  13. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1233-1249, 09.
  14. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2011. "The International Monetary System: Living with Asymmetry," CEPR Discussion Papers 8703, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Garicano, Luis & Santos, Tano, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone," CEPR Discussion Papers 9404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
  17. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
  18. Lorenzo Forni & Andrea Gerali & Massimiliano Pisani, 2009. "Macroeconomic effects of greater competition in the service sector: the case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 706, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  19. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations," NBER Working Papers 18336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1811-1843, October.
  21. Thomas Laryea, 2010. "Approaches to Corporate Debt Restructuring in the Wake of Financial Crises," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/02, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 27, pages 19-67 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-72, May.
  24. Martin Raiser & Indermit S. Gill, 2012. "Golden Growth : Restoring the Lustre of the European Economic Model," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6016.
  25. Kristin J. Forbes, 2012. "The “Big C”: identifying and mitigating contagion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 23-87.
  26. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns; A History of Ideas, 1976-2001," IMF Working Papers 02/133, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
  28. Lane, Philip R. & Pels, Barbara, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Eggertsson, Gauti & Ferrero, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2014. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 2-22.
  30. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," European Economy - Economic Papers 497, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  32. Keynote Speech by Maurice Obstfeld, 2011. "International Liquidity: The Fiscal Dimension," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 33-48, November.
  33. Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 2011. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union. Lesson from the financial crisis in the Euro area," Working Papers 426, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  34. Shiller, Robert J., 1998. "Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294184.
  35. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  36. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Thierry Tressel & Martin Schindler, 2009. "Growth and Structural Reforms; A New Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/284, International Monetary Fund.
  37. Romain Bouis & Orsetta Causa & Lilas Demmou & Romain Duval & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms: An Empirical Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 949, OECD Publishing.
  38. Ruo Chen & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Thierry Tressel, 2012. "External Imbalances in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 12/236, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Thomas Laryea & Luc Laeven, 2009. "Principles of Household Debt Restructuring," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/15, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
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