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Payment changes and default risk: theimpact of refinancing on expected credit losses

Author

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  • Joseph Tracy
  • Joshua Wright

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between changes in borrowers' monthly mortgage payments and future credit performance. This relationship is important for the design of an internal refinance program such as the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). We use a competing risk model to estimate the sensitivity of default risk to downward adjustments of borrowers' monthly mortgage payments for a large sample of prime adjustable-rate mortgages. Applying a 26 percent average monthly payment reduction that we estimate would result from refinancing under HARP, we find that the cumulative five-year default rate on prime conforming adjustable-rate mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 80 percent declines by 3.8 percentage points. If we assume an average loss given default of 35.2 percent, this lower default risk implies reduced credit losses of 134 basis points per dollar of balance for mortgages that refinance under HARP.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Tracy & Joshua Wright, 2012. "Payment changes and default risk: theimpact of refinancing on expected credit losses," Staff Reports 562, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
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    1. repec:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:5:p:122-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Beraja, Martin & Fuster, Andreas & Hurst, Erik & Vavra, Joseph, 2015. "Regional heterogeneity and the refinancing channel of monetary policy," Staff Reports 731, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Mar 2018.
    3. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    4. Epouhe, Onesime & Hall, Arden, 2016. "Payment shock in HELOCs at the end of the draw period," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 131-147.
    5. Lee, Donghoon & Tracy, Joseph, 2018. "Long-term outcomes of FHA first-time homebuyers," Staff Reports 839, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9566-z is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Joanne W. Hsu & David A. Matsa & Brian T. Melzer, 2014. "Positive Externalities of Social Insurance: Unemployment Insurance and Consumer Credit," NBER Working Papers 20353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Johnson, Kathleen W. & Sarama, Robert F., 2015. "End of the Line: Behavior of HELOC Borrowers Facing Payment Changes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-73, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2016. "Cost of funds indexed mortgage contracts with government-backed catastrophic insurance (COFI-Cats): A realistic alternative to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 109-130.
    10. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2014. "Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 20561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Karamon, Kadiri & McManus, Douglas & Yannopoulos, Elias, 2016. "Spillover effects of continuous forbearance mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 95-108.
    12. Abel, Joshua & Fuster, Andreas, 2018. "How do mortgage refinances affect debt, default, and spending? Evidence from HARP," Staff Reports 841, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Danne, Christian & McGuinness, Anne, 2016. "Mortgage modifications and loan performance," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adjustable rate mortgages ; Mortgages ; Default (Finance) ; Risk ; Credit;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R51 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Finance in Urban and Rural Economies

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