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Household debt and labour market fluctuations

  • Javier Andrés

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • José E. Boscá

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • Javier Ferri

    (Universidad de Valencia)

The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fl uctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. Our exercise shows that the dynamic pattern of the labor market variables might have been substantially affected by the increase in household leverage in the US in the last twenty years. We set up a search model with effi cient bargaining and fi nancial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers’ equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn results in lower hours per worker and higher wages in the bargaining process. This shift in labor supply discourages fi rms from opening vacancies, reducing the impact of the shock on employment.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/11/Fich/dt1129e.pdf
File Function: First version, November 2011
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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1129.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1129
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  1. Ravn, Morten O & Simonelli, Saverio, 2007. "Labour Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 6409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  9. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 11330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
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  13. José Emilio Boscá & Rafael Domenech & Javier Ferri, 2009. "Search, Nash Bargaining and Rule of Thumb Consumers," Working Papers 0912, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
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  15. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
  16. Nicolas Dromel & Elie Kolakez & Etienne Lehmann, 2009. "Credit Constraints and the Persistence of Unemployment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00389762, HAL.
  17. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  18. Regis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, aggregate demand and unemployment fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19694, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  19. Guy Debelle, 2004. "Household debt and the macroeconomy," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  20. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
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  22. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2007. "Technology Shocks, Statistical Models, and The Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 3589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
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  26. Smith Jr., Anthony A., 2009. "Comment on: "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt" by Campbell and Hercowitz," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 17-19, January.
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