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Household debt and labour market fluctuations

  • Javier Andrés

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • José E. Boscá

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • Javier Ferri

    (Universidad de Valencia)

The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fl uctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. Our exercise shows that the dynamic pattern of the labor market variables might have been substantially affected by the increase in household leverage in the US in the last twenty years. We set up a search model with effi cient bargaining and fi nancial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers’ equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn results in lower hours per worker and higher wages in the bargaining process. This shift in labor supply discourages fi rms from opening vacancies, reducing the impact of the shock on employment.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/11/Fich/dt1129e.pdf
File Function: First version, November 2011
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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1129.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1129
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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  1. Jordi Galí & Thijs van Rens, 2014. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labor Productivity," Working Papers 489, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
  3. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2007. "Technology Shocks, Statistical Models, and The Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 3589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  5. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Gal�, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
  7. Arnaud Cheron & Francois Langot, 2004. "Labor Market Search and Real Business Cycles: Reconciling Nash Bargaining with the Real Wage Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 476-493, April.
  8. Alan G. Ahearne & John Ammer & Brian M. Doyle & Linda S. Kole & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "Monetary Policy and House Prices: A Cross-Country Study," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 344, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "On the Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 279-98, April.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  11. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2008. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 743-777, 03.
  12. Dromel, Nicolas L. & Kolakez, Elie & Lehmann, Etienne, 2010. "Credit constraints and the persistence of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 823-834, October.
  13. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  14. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 11330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
  17. Regis Barnichon, 2008. "Productivity, aggregate demand and unemployment fluctuations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Smith Jr., Anthony A., 2009. "Comment on: "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt" by Campbell and Hercowitz," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 17-19, January.
  19. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2009. "Do credit constraints amplify macroeconomic fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 2009-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  20. Lee Ohanian & Andres Arias & Gary Hansen, 2005. "Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?," 2005 Meeting Papers 927, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  22. Ohanian, Lee E. & Raffo, Andrea, 2012. "Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: New measurement and implications for business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 40-56.
  23. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
  25. José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri & Rafa Doménech, 2009. "Search, Nash Bargaining and Rule of Thumb Consumers," Working Papers 0901, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  26. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Guy Debelle, 2004. "Household debt and the macroeconomy," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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