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Fiscal Multipliers in the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro brinca

    () (Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal; Centro de Economia e Finanças, Universidade do Porto, Portugal; Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute, Italy)

  • Hans A. Holter

    (Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway)

  • Per Krusell

    (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Sweden)

  • Laurence Malafry

    (Department of Economics, Stockholm University, Sweden)

Abstract

Fiscal multipliers appear to vary greatly overtime and space. Based on VARs for a large number of countries, we document a strong correlation between wealth inequality and the magnitude of fiscal multipliers. In an attempt to account for this finding, we develop a life-cycle, overlapping generations economy with uninsurable labor market risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of a number of OECD economies, including the distribution of wages and wealth, social security, taxes, and government debt and study how a fiscal multiplier depends on various country characteristics. We find that the fiscal multiplier is highly sensitive to the fraction of the population who face binding credit constraints and also to the average wealth level in the economy. These findings together help us generate across-country pattern of multipliers that is quite similar to that in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro brinca & Hans A. Holter & Per Krusell & Laurence Malafry, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers in the 21st century," GEE Papers 0059, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0059
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    Cited by:

    1. Per Krusell & Anthony Smith & Joachim Hubmer, 2015. "The historical evolution of the wealth distribution: A quantitative-theoretic investigation," 2015 Meeting Papers 1406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Approximating Time Varying Structural Models With Time Invariant Structures," Working Paper 15-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Pedro Brinca & Miguel H. Ferreira & Francesco Franco & Hans A. Holter & Laurence Malafry, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation Programs and Income Inequality," CEF.UP Working Papers 1703, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    5. Emily Anderson & Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1877-1888, December.
    6. Kurt Mitman & Iourii Manovskii & Marcus Hagedorn, 2017. "The Fiscal Multiplier," 2017 Meeting Papers 1383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Pedro Brinca & Miguel H. Ferreira & Francesco Franco & Hans A. Holter & Laurence Malafry, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation Programs and Income Inequality," CeBER Working Papers 2017-11, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    8. Pfammatter, Andrea Corina, 2015. "Do differences in international labor mobility lead to differences in the fiscal multiplier? A theoretical approach," MPRA Paper 68955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Manuel, Lancastre, 2016. "Age Milestones and Low Interest Rates, an Analytic Approach," MPRA Paper 85046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Torben M. Andersen, 2016. "Automatic stabilizers—the intersection of labour market and fiscal policies," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Scharrer, Christian & Heer, Burkhard, 2016. "The Burden of Unanticipated Fiscal Policy," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145542, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. repec:eee:inecon:v:112:y:2018:i:c:p:123-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jüßen, Falko & Bredemeier, Christian & Winkler, Roland, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and Occupational Employment Dynamics," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168193, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Lancastre, Manuel, 2016. "Inequality and Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 85047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 923-944, November.
    16. António Antunes & Valerio Ercolani, 2016. "Public debt expansions and the dynamics of the household borrowing constraint," Working Papers w201618, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. George Chouliarakis & Tadeusz Gwiazdowski & Sophia Lazaretou, 2016. "The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output in Times of Crisis and Prosperity: Historical Evidence From Greece ," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 230, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.

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    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; Wealth inequality; Government spending; Taxation;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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