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Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier

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  • Bill Dupor
  • Marios Karabarbounis
  • Marianna Kudlyak
  • M. Saif Mehkari

Abstract

We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in the Nielsen scanner data and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases local non-durable consumer spending by $0.29 and local auto spending by $0.09. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multiregional, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, incomplete markets, and trade linkages. Our model is consistent with the estimated positive local multiplier, a result that distinguishes our incomplete markets model from models with complete markets. At the zero lower bound, the aggregate consumption multiplier is twice as large as the local multiplier because trade linkages propagate the effect of government spending across regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bill Dupor & Marios Karabarbounis & Marianna Kudlyak & M. Saif Mehkari, 2018. "Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2018-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2018-04
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2018-04
    Note: The first version of this paper was published February 20, 2018.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Adrien Auclert & Will S. Dobbie & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 25685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mario Crucini & Nam Vu, 2021. "Did the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Help Counties Most Affected by the Great Recession?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 264-282, October.
    5. Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2020. "Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 429-463, December.
    6. Kartik B. Athreya & Ryan Mather & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Juan M. Sanchez, 2020. "Household Financial Distress and the Burden of ‘Aggregate’ Shocks," Research Working Paper RWP 20-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Yongsung Chang & Yena Park, 2021. "Optimal Taxation with Private Insurance [Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2766-2798.
    8. Fátima Cardoso & Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Nuno Alves, 2020. "Heterogeneous response of consumers to income shocks throughout a financial assistance program," Working Papers w202018, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Daniel Murphy, 2019. "Macroeconomic Frameworks," NBER Working Papers 26365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Faia, Ester & Kudlyak, Marianna & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2021. "Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 14794, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Gerald Carlino & Nicholas Zarra & Robert Inman & Thorsten Drautzburg, 2019. "Fiscal Policy in Monetary Unions: State Partisanship and its Macroeconomic Effects," 2019 Meeting Papers 434, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2020. "Comments on “Regional Data in Macroeconomics: Advice for Practitioners”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Jean‐François Houde & Peter Newberry & Katja Seim, 2023. "Nexus Tax Laws and Economies of Density in E‐Commerce: A Study of Amazon's Fulfillment Center Network," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 147-190, January.
    14. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, 2020. "Regional data in macroeconomics: Some advice for practitioners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Plamen T. Nenov & Alp Simsek, 2021. "Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1613-1657, May.
    16. Marco Bellifemine & Adrien Couturier & Rustam Jamilov, 2022. "The Regional Keynesian Cross," Economics Series Working Papers 995, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Christopher Biolsi & Alex Lebedinsky, 2021. "Can changes in sentiments influence consumer behavior? Evidence from the Trump‐Russia investigation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1569-1592, October.
    18. McCrory, Peter B, 2020. "Tradable Spillovers of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the 2009 Recovery Act," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt04n482qf, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    19. J. Anthony Cookson & Erik P. Gilje & Rawley Z. Heimer, 2020. "Shale Shocked: Cash Windfalls and Household Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 27782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor & Rong Li & Yijiang Zhou, 2023. "Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier," Working Papers 2023-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 17 Nov 2023.
    21. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    22. Christopher Biolsi, 2019. "Local Effects of a Military Spending Shock: Evidence from Shipbuilding in the 1930s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 227-248, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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