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How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Greg Kaplan
  • Jae Song

Abstract

How sensitive to business cycles are the earnings of top earners? And, how does the business cycle sensitivity of top earners vary by industry? We use a confidential dataset on earnings histories of US males from the Social Security Administration. On average, individuals in the top 1 percent of the earnings distribution are slightly more cyclical than the population average. But there are large differences across sectors; top earners in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and Construction face substantial business cycle volatility, whereas those in Services (who make up 40 percent of individuals in the top 1 percent) have earnings that are less cyclical than the average worker.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Guvenen & Greg Kaplan & Jae Song, 2014. "How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 148-153, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:5:p:148-53
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.148
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Aghion & Ufuk Akcigit & Antonin Bergeaud & Richard Blundell & David Hemous, 2019. "Innovation and Top Income Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45.
    2. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke, 2024. "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(5), pages 1211-1247, May.
    3. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2023. "Asymmetric downside risk across different sectors of the US equity market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Foellmi, Reto & Martínez, Isabel Z., 2014. "Volatile Top Income Shares in Switzerland? Reassessing the Evolution Between 1981 and 2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 10006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    6. Michael Böhm & Daniel Metzger & Per Strömberg, 2022. "“Since You’re So Rich, You Must Be Really Smart”: Talent, Rent Sharing, and the Finance Wage Premium," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 147, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    7. Strömberg, Per & Metzger, Daniel & Böhm, Michael, 2018. "“Since you’re so rich, you must be really smart†: Talent and the Finance Wage Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 12711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Reto Foellmi & Isabel Z. Martínez, 2017. "Volatile Top Income Shares in Switzerland? Reassessing the Evolution between 1981 and 2010," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 793-809, December.
    9. Alejandro Badel & Moira Daly & Mark Huggett & Martin Nybom, 2018. "Top Earners: Cross-Country Facts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(3), pages 237-257.
    10. Andrea Parma & Manos Matsaganis & Maria Giulia Montanari & Costanzo Ranci, 2025. "Incidence and Distribution of Earnings Shocks: Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 559-579, May.
    11. Audra Bowlus & Émilien Gouin‐Bonenfant & Huju Liu & Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park, 2022. "Four decades of Canadian earnings inequality and dynamics across workers and firms," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1447-1491, November.
    12. Stohler, Fabio & Bayer, Christian, 2025. "Can Public Debt Crowd in Private Investment?," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325410, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Bernstein, Joshua, 2021. "A model of state-dependent monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 904-917.
    14. Blundell, Jack, 2021. "Wage responses to gender pay gap reporting requirements," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Reto Foellmi & Isabel Z. Martínez, 2018. "Inequality in Switzerland: A Haven of Stability?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(02), pages 19-25, July.
    16. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J Müller, 2023. "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1318-1347.
    17. Frédéric Teulon & Guillaume Bigot & Bernard Terrany & Negar Youssefian, 2016. "Rémunérations des PDG : toniques ou toxiques ? Une mise en perspective de la littérature," Post-Print hal-01865108, HAL.
    18. Schmidt, Lawrence D.W., 2025. "Climbing and falling off the ladder: Asset pricing implications of labor market event risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    19. Böhm, Michael Johannes & Metzger, Daniel & Strömberg, Per, 2022. "'Since You're So Rich, You Must Be Really Smart': Talent, Rent Sharing, and the Finance Wage Premium," IZA Discussion Papers 15337, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Beatriz Muriel & Horacio Vera, 2015. "The Effects of Economic Growth on Earnings in Bolivia," Development Research Working Paper Series 08/2015, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    21. Jack Blundell, 2021. "Wage responses to gender pay gap reporting requirements," CEP Discussion Papers dp1750, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Marco D’Amico & Martina Fazio, 2025. "Modelling income risk dynamics in the UK: a parametric approach," Bank of England working papers 1129, Bank of England.
    23. Jesse Bricker & Alice Henriques & Jacob Krimmel & John Sabelhaus, 2016. "Measuring Income and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 261-331.
    24. Böhm, Michael & Metzger, Daniel & Strömberg, Per, 2015. "Since you’re so rich, you must be really smart”: Talent and the Finance Wage Premium," Working Paper Series 313, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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