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Fiscal Multipliers in a Panel of Countries

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  • Contreras Juan
  • Battelle Holly

Abstract

We estimate fiscal multipliers in a panel of countries using dynamic panel techniques and quarterly data for 55 countries. By using a GMM estimator and lagged dependent variables as instruments in a SVAR model, we attempt to correct for the biases present in this setting, to alleviate concerns about causality, and to decrease potential effects of third factors. Contrary to previous research, we find no strong evidence of monetary accommodation, a positive and larger fiscal multiplier in developing than in high-income countries, and zero in high-debt countries and in flexible exchange rates countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Contreras Juan & Battelle Holly, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Panel of Countries," Working Papers 2014-15, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-15
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    1. -, 2017. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2017: Dynamics of the current economic cycle and policy challenges for boosting investment and growth," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 42002 edited by Eclac, September.
    2. Rahaman, Ataur & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2021. "The effects of fiscal policy shocks in Bangladesh: An agnostic identification procedure," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 626-644.
    3. Garry, Stefanie & Rivas Valdivia, Juan Carlos, 2017. "An analysis of the contribution of public expenditure to economic growth and fiscal multipliers in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic, 1990-2015," Estudios y Perspectivas – Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México 42062, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Raut, Dirghau & Raju, Swati, 2019. "Size of Expenditure Multipliers for Indian States: Does the Level of Income and Public Debt Matter?," MPRA Paper 104947, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; Panel of countries; SVAR; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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