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Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model

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  • Stavarek, Daniel
  • Dohnal, Marek

Abstract

This paper applies the Girton-Roper model of exchange market pressure (EMP) on four Central European economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1995-2008. The results suggest that there is a strong negative relation between domestic credit and EMP in all countries. We also found evidence of positive effect of domestic income on EMP in most of the countries. The paper reveals that EMP in the Czech Republic and Hungary was mostly absorbed by changes of exchange rate while changes in reserves absorbed EMP in Slovakia. The levels of EMP estimated do not pose a significant threat for fulfilment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavarek, Daniel & Dohnal, Marek, 2009. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model," MPRA Paper 15744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15744
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15744/1/MPRA_paper_15744.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Idrees Khawaja, 2007. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 83-114, Jul-Dec.
    2. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Interest rate transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in the selected EMU candidate countries (SVAR approach)," MPRA Paper 14072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Priya Mathur, 1999. "An Exchange Market Pressure Model for India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 127-148, July.
    6. Stavarek Daniel, 2008. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 7-18, November.
    7. Pentecost, Eric J. & Van Hooydonk, Charlotte & Van Poeck, Andre, 2001. "Measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 401-418, June.
    8. Rajmund Mirdala, 2009. "Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in the Selected EMU Candidate Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 359-377, September.
    9. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2006. "Identifying And Dating The Episodes Of Speculative Pressures Against The Singapore Dollar," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(02), pages 113-133.
    10. repec:lje:journl:v:2:y:2007:i:2:p:83-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    12. Connolly, Michael & Dantas da Silveira, Jose, 1979. "Exchange Market Pressure in Postwar Brazil: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 448-454, June.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Shiva, Reza, 1998. "A method of detecting whether a central bank engages in the black market for foreign exchange: Evidence from Iran," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 97-103, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Panday, Anjan, 2015. "Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-71.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange market pressure; Girton-Roper model; euro-candidate countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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