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Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model

  • Stavarek, Daniel
  • Dohnal, Marek

This paper applies the Girton-Roper model of exchange market pressure (EMP) on four Central European economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1995-2008. The results suggest that there is a strong negative relation between domestic credit and EMP in all countries. We also found evidence of positive effect of domestic income on EMP in most of the countries. The paper reveals that EMP in the Czech Republic and Hungary was mostly absorbed by changes of exchange rate while changes in reserves absorbed EMP in Slovakia. The levels of EMP estimated do not pose a significant threat for fulfilment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15744.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15744
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. repec:lje:journl:v:2:y:2007:i:2:p:83-114 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  4. Rajmund Mirdala, 2009. "Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in the Selected EMU Candidate Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 359-377, September.
  5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Shiva, Reza, 1998. "A method of detecting whether a central bank engages in the black market for foreign exchange: Evidence from Iran," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 97-103, July.
  6. Priya Mathur, 1999. "An Exchange Market Pressure Model for India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 127-148, July.
  7. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
  8. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2006. "Identifying And Dating The Episodes Of Speculative Pressures Against The Singapore Dollar," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(02), pages 113-133.
  9. Stavarek Daniel, 2008. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 3(2), pages 7-18, November.
  10. Connolly, Michael & Dantas da Silveira, Jose, 1979. "Exchange Market Pressure in Postwar Brazil: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 448-54, June.
  11. PENTECOST, Eric J. & VAN HOOYDONK, Charlotte & VAN POECK, André, 1997. "Measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the EU," SESO Working Papers 1997009, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  12. M. Idrees Khawaja, 2007. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 83-114, Jul-Dec.
  13. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Interest rate transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in the selected EMU candidate countries (SVAR approach)," MPRA Paper 14072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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