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Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan

  • M. Idrees Khawaja

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

The study employs Girton and Roper (1977) measure of exchange market pressure—sum of exchange rate depreciation and foreign reserves outflow, to examine the interaction between exchange market pressure and monetary variables, viz. domestic credit (Reserve Money) and interest rate. Evidence from impulse response functions suggests that domestic credit has remained the dominant tool of monetary policy for managing exchange market pressure. The increase in domestic credit upon increase in exchange market pressure (during 1991–98) is imprudent. The result suggests that fiscal needs/growth objective might have dominated the external account considerations during the span. Post 9/11 there is evidence of sterilised intervention in forex market. Interest rate has also weakly served as the tool of monetary policy during the hay days of foreign currency deposits (1991–98). The finding implies that for interest rate to work as tool of monetary policy vis-a-vis exchange market pressure a reasonable degree of capital mobility is called for.

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File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-31.pdf
File Function: First Version, 2007
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Paper provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its series PIDE-Working Papers with number 2007:31.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:31
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Web page: http://www.pide.org.pk
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  1. Evan Tanner, 1999. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy; Asia and Latin America in the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 99/114, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
  3. Evan Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy; Additional Evidence From Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/14, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
  5. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Bautista, Carlos C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 153-168, March.
  6. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Parkin, Michael, 1976. " Comment on M. Mussa, "The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating."," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 249-54.
  8. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  9. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  10. Connolly, Michael & Dantas da Silveira, Jose, 1979. "Exchange Market Pressure in Postwar Brazil: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 448-54, June.
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