Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan
The study employs the Girton and Roper (1977) measure of exchange market pressure (defined as the sum of exchange rate depreciation and foreign reserves outflow), to examinethe interaction between exchange market pressure and monetary variables, viz. domestic credit (Reserve Money) and the interest rate. Evidence from impulse response functions suggests that domestic credit has remained the dominant tool of monetary policy for managing exchange market pressure. The increase in domestic credit upon increases in exchange market pressure (during 1991-98) was imprudent. The results suggest that fiscal needs/growth objectives might have dominated external account considerations during this period. Post 9/11 there is evidence of sterilized intervention in the forex market. The interest rate has also weakly served as the tool of monetary policy during the hay days of foreign currency deposits (1991-98). The finding implies that, for the interest rate to work as tool of monetary policy vis-a-vis exchange market pressure, a reasonable degree of capital mobility is called for.
Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (Jul-Dec)
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Evan Tanner, 2001.
"Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-2.
- Evan C Tanner, 1999. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy; Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 99/114, International Monetary Fund.
- Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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- Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
- Connolly, Michael & Dantas da Silveira, Jose, 1979. "Exchange Market Pressure in Postwar Brazil: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 448-454, June.
- Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
- Olivier D Jeanne & Robert P Flood, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 00/159, International Monetary Fund.
- Flood, Robert P & Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defence of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Evan C Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy; Additional Evidence From Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Bautista, Carlos C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 153-168, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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