IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/ibg/chaptr/msc-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Serbian Credit Market After the Turmoil

In: Managing Structural Changes - Trends and Requirements

Author

Listed:
  • Srdjan Marinkovic

    (University of Nis, Faculty of Economics)

  • Marko Malovic

    (Institute of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

The chapter explores current stance of developments in Serbian credit market, by looking at credit aggregates and interest rates. Although, there are signs of weak credit market, full scale credit crunch is so far avoided thanks to efforts coordinated by the key stakeholders: IMF, National Bank of Serbia and foreign banking groups. The chapter provides an econometric analysis of the macroeconomic and macro-financial determinants of the credit growth for Serbia. We employed multiple linear regressions and found country risk premium, exchange rate risk premium and real exchange rate to be the variables with power to explain credit growth. The chapter also discusses some policy options to address “credit cuts – rising rates” scenario, squeezing out SMEs, excessive liability formation and credit euroization.

Suggested Citation

  • Srdjan Marinkovic & Marko Malovic, 2012. "Serbian Credit Market After the Turmoil," Book Chapters, in: João Sousa Andrade & Marta C. N. Simões & Ivan Stosic & Dejan Eric & Hasan Hanic (ed.), Managing Structural Changes - Trends and Requirements, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 278-302, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibg:chaptr:msc-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ien.bg.ac.rs/images/stories/download/managestr_ch14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1992. "Some Evidence on the Empirical Significance of Credit Rationing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1047-1077, October.
    5. Sotiris Staikouras, 2004. "A chronicle of the banking and currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 873-878.
    6. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Working Papers 0912, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    7. Frédéric Boissay & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Tomasz Kozluk, 2006. "Is Lending in Central and Eastern Europe Developing Too Fast?," Chapters, in: Klaus Liebscher & Josef Christl & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Bernauer Thomas & Koubi Vally, 2004. "Banking Crisis vs. Credit Crunch? A Cross-Country Comparison of Policy Responses to Dilemmas in Banking Regulation," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-24, August.
    9. Olivier Bruno, 2009. "Credit Availability and Capital Crunch: On the Role of the Heterogeneity of the Banking System," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 11(2), pages 251-279, April.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    11. Vedran Šošić & Evan Kraft, 2006. "Floating With A Large Life Jacket: Monetary And Exchange Rate Policies In Croatia Under Dollarization," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 492-506, October.
    12. Dennis, William J, 2008. "Small Business Access to Credit: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow," Working Papers 2008:1, Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum.
    13. Bernauer, Thomas & Koubi, Vally, 2004. "Banking Crisis vs. Credit Crunch? A Cross-Country Comparison of Policy Responses to Dilemmas in Banking Regulation," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, August.
    14. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    15. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
    16. Luca, Alina & Petrova, Iva, 2008. "What drives credit dollarization in transition economies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 858-869, May.
    17. Gerardo Licandro & José Antonio Licandro, 2003. "Building the Dedollarization Agenda: Lessons from the Uruguayan Case," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-218, July-Dece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michele Fratianni, 2008. "Financial Crises, Safety Nets and Regulation," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 169-208.
    2. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    3. Joon-Ho Hahm & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Causes of the Korean Financial Crisis: Lessons for Policy," NBER Working Papers 7483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Bubbles and Crises The Economic Journal," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Mekki Hamdaoui & SaifEddine Ayouni & Samir Maktouf, 2022. "Financial crises: explanation, prediction, and interdependence," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-52, August.
    6. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-255, January.
    7. Alexandra Lai, 2002. "Modelling Financial Instability: A Survey of the Literature," Staff Working Papers 02-12, Bank of Canada.
    8. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    9. Saidane, Dhafer & Sène, Babacar & Désiré Kanga, Kouamé, 2021. "Pan-African banks, banking interconnectivity: A new systemic risk measure in the WAEMU," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Schroth, Enrique & Suarez, Gustavo A. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2014. "Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 164-189.
    11. Aldean, Cory, 2010. "Financial crisis response plan," MPRA Paper 28166, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jan 2011.
    12. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    13. Mirjana Jemović & Srđan Marinković, 2021. "Determinants of financial crises—An early warning system based on panel logit regression," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 103-117, January.
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Luc Laeven, 2011. "Banking Crises: A Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 17-40, December.
    16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "International Capital Movements, Financial Volatility and Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 6390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mardini Patrick, 2016. "The Case for Repairing Broken Channels without the Use of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 61-76, July.
    18. Wang, Wen-Yao & Hernandez-Verme, Paula, 2009. "Multiple Reserve Requirements, Exchange Rates, Sudden Stops and Equilibrium Dynamics in a Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 13802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dimelis, Sophia & Giotopoulos, Ioannis & Louri, Helen, 2015. "Can firms grow without credit?: evidence from the Euro Area, 2005-2011: a quantile panel analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibg:chaptr:msc-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zorica Bozic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ienbgyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.