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Serbian Credit Market After the Turmoil

  • Srdjan Marinkovic

    (University of Nis, Faculty of Economics)

  • Marko Malovic

    ()

    (Institute of Economic Sciences)

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    The chapter explores current stance of developments in Serbian credit market, by looking at credit aggregates and interest rates. Although, there are signs of weak credit market, full scale credit crunch is so far avoided thanks to efforts coordinated by the key stakeholders: IMF, National Bank of Serbia and foreign banking groups. The chapter provides an econometric analysis of the macroeconomic and macro-financial determinants of the credit growth for Serbia. We employed multiple linear regressions and found country risk premium, exchange rate risk premium and real exchange rate to be the variables with power to explain credit growth. The chapter also discusses some policy options to address “credit cuts – rising rates” scenario, squeezing out SMEs, excessive liability formation and credit euroization.

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    This chapter was published in:
  • João Sousa Andrade & Marta C. N. Simões & Ivan Stosic & Dejan Eric & Hasan Hanic (ed.), 2012. "Managing Structural Changes - Trends and Requirements," Books, Institute of Economic Sciences, edition 1, volume 1, number msc, Spring.
  • This item is provided by Institute of Economic Sciences in its series Book Chapters with number msc-14.
    Handle: RePEc:ibg:chaptr:msc-14
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    1. Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Post-Print halshs-00384566, HAL.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 1990. "Some evidence on the empirical significance of credit rationing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Bernauer Thomas & Koubi Vally, 2004. "Banking Crisis vs. Credit Crunch? A Cross-Country Comparison of Policy Responses to Dilemmas in Banking Regulation," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-24, August.
    6. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
    7. Sotiris Staikouras, 2004. "A chronicle of the banking and currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 873-878.
    8. Gerardo Licandro & José Antonio Licandro, 2003. "Building the Dedollarization Agenda: Lessons from the Uruguayan Case," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 193-218, July-Dece.
    9. Vedran Sosic & Evan Kraft, 2006. "Floating With A Large Life Jacket: Monetary And Exchange Rate Policies In Croatia Under Dollarization," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 492-506, October.
    10. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    11. Olivier Bruno, 2009. "Credit Availability and Capital Crunch: On the Role of the Heterogeneity of the Banking System," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 11(2), pages 251-279, 04.
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