Serbian Credit Market After the Turmoil
The chapter explores current stance of developments in Serbian credit market, by looking at credit aggregates and interest rates. Although, there are signs of weak credit market, full scale credit crunch is so far avoided thanks to efforts coordinated by the key stakeholders: IMF, National Bank of Serbia and foreign banking groups. The chapter provides an econometric analysis of the macroeconomic and macro-financial determinants of the credit growth for Serbia. We employed multiple linear regressions and found country risk premium, exchange rate risk premium and real exchange rate to be the variables with power to explain credit growth. The chapter also discusses some policy options to address “credit cuts – rising rates” scenario, squeezing out SMEs, excessive liability formation and credit euroization.
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