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Weak economy and strong currency: The origins of the strong yen in the 1990's

  • Schnabl, Gunther

During the 1990's the Japanese yen proved astonishingly strong despite the persisting recession. This paper tracks the origins of the high yen. It analyses the influence of interest rates, prices and foreign exchange policy on the yen-dollar exchange rate. It comes to the conclusion that real interest differentials can only explain shortterm exchange rate changes. Since prices have been exe rting their influence on the Japanese currency in the long run, the high yen is explained with deflation. The massive foreign exchange interventions of the 1990's were only able to stop the appreciation temporarily, if they were unsterilized, but they had no lasting effects.

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Paper provided by University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics in its series Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge with number 218.

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Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuedps:218
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  1. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
  2. Gunther Schnabl, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 31-50, 01.
  3. Menon, Jayant, 1995. "The Relationship between the Law of One Price and Exchange Rate Pass-through," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 48(4), pages 551-568.
  4. Kenichi Ohno, 1990. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Pass-Through, and Market Share," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 294-310, June.
  5. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  6. Athukorala, Premachandra & Menon, Jayant, 1994. "Pricing to Market Behaviour and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 271-81, March.
  7. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  8. Ceglowski, Janet, 1996. "The Real Yen Exchange Rate and Japanese Productivity Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 54-63, February.
  9. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  10. Gunther Schnabl & Dirk Baur, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parity: Granger Causality Tests for the Yen- Dollar Exchange Rate," International Finance 0506006, EconWPA.
  11. MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "On the Japanese Yen-US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," CEPR Discussion Papers 1639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Gordon, Robert J., 1994. "Comments : International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation by J. De G regorio, A. Giovannini and H.C. Wolf," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1245-1249, June.
  13. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate: Have Interventions Mattered?," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  15. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
  17. de Menil, Georges, 1994. "Comments: International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation by J. De Gregorio, A. Giovannini and H.C. Wolf," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1250-1256, June.
  18. C. Randall Henning, 1994. "Currencies and Politics in the United States, Germany, and Japan," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 15.
  19. Hung, Wansing & Kim, Yoonbai & Ohno, Kenichi, 1993. "Pricing exports: a cross-country study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 3-28, February.
  20. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032473, June.
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