IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/2085.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Core-Periphery Model With Forward-Looking Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Baldwin, Richard

Abstract

The 'core-periphery model' is vitiated by its assumption of static expectations. That is, migration (inter-regional or intersectoral) is the key to agglomeration, but migrants base their decision on current wage differences alone--even though migration predictably alters wages and workers are (implicitly) infinitely lived. The assumption was necessary for tractability. The model has multiple stable equilibria, so forward-looking behaviour requires characterisation of global stability in a non-linear dynamic system (a potentially intractable problem). This paper's main contribution is to present a set of solution techniques-partly analytic and partly numerical-that allows consideration of forward-looking expectations. Surprisingly, we find that if migration costs are sufficiently high, allowing forward-looking behaviour changes nothing, so static expectations are truly an assumption of convenience. If migration costs are lower, history-vs-expectations considerations emerge. Agglomeration, therefore, can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldwin, Richard, 1999. "The Core-Periphery Model With Forward-Looking Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=2085
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyoji Fukao & Roland Benabou, 1993. "History Versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 535-542.
    2. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    3. Davis, Donald R, 1998. "The Home Market, Trade, and Industrial Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1264-1276, December.
    4. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    5. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    6. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
    7. Puga, Diego, 1999. "The rise and fall of regional inequalities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 303-334, February.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    9. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1995. "Complementarities and Cumulative Processes in Models of Monopolistic Competition," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 701-729, June.
    10. Fujita,Masahisa & Thisse,Jacques-François, 2013. "Economics of Agglomeration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107001411.
    11. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Flam, Harry & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Industrial policy under monopolistic competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 79-102, February.
    13. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth (1992)," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, March.
    14. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2001. "Monopolistic competition, trade, and endogenous spatial fluctuations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-77, February.
    15. Venables, Anthony J, 1987. "Trade and Trade Policy with Differentiated Products: A Chamberlinian-Ricardian Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 700-717, September.
    16. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    17. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J, 1990. "Integration and the Competitiveness of Peripheral Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 363, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. G Ottaviano & Diego Puga, 1997. "Agglomeration in a global Economy: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0356, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Helena Marques, 2008. "Trade And Factor Flows In A Diverse Eu: What Lessons For The Eastern Enlargement(S)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 364-408, April.
    3. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2001. "Monopolistic competition, trade, and endogenous spatial fluctuations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-77, February.
    4. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2004. "Agglomeration and economic geography," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 58, pages 2563-2608, Elsevier.
    5. Marco Maffezzoli & Federico Trionfetti, "undated". "Approximation Methods: an Application to the Core-Periphery Model," Working Papers 219, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. J.Peter Neary, 2001. "Of Hype and Hyperbolas: Introducing the New Economic Geography," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 536-561, June.
    7. Epifani, Paolo, 2005. "Heckscher-Ohlin and agglomeration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 645-657, November.
    8. Gianmarco Ottaviano & Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques-François Thisse, 2021. "Agglomeration And Trade Revisited," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 3, pages 59-85, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Kurt A. Hafner, 2015. "Tax Competition and Economic Integration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 45-61, February.
    10. Richard E Baldwin & Rikard Forslid, 2000. "The Core–Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth: Stabilizing and Destabilizing Integration," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 307-324, August.
    11. Fabien Candau, 2008. "Entrepreneurs' Location Choice And Public Policies: A Survey Of The New Economic Geography," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 909-952, December.
    12. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Baldwin, Richard E., 1999. "Agglomeration and endogenous capital," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-280, February.
    14. Fujita, Masahisa & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2001. "Agglomération et marché," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 58.
    15. Luca, Spinesi, 2005. "Vertical and Horizontal Innovation : Effects of Globalization and Migration on Inequality, Growth and Human Capital Accumulation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005028, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    16. Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2006. "Agglomeration and Trade with Input–Output Linkages and Capital Mobility," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
    17. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65, February.
    18. Masahisa Fujita & Jacques‐François Thisse, 2003. "Does Geographical Agglomeration Foster Economic Growth? And Who Gains and Loses from It?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 121-145, June.
    19. Fujita, Masahisa & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2009. "New Economic Geography: An appraisal on the occasion of Paul Krugman's 2008 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 109-119, March.
    20. Boiscuvier, Éléonore, 2001. "Innovation, intégration et développement régional," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(2), pages 255-280, juin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Geography; Forward looking expectaions;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.