The Core-Periphery Model With Forward-Looking Expectations
The 'core-periphery model' is vitiated by its assumption of static expectations. That is, migration (inter-regional or intersectoral) is the key to agglomeration, but migrants base their decision on current wage differences alone--even though migration predictably alters wages and workers are (implicitly) infinitely lived. The assumption was necessary for tractability. The model has multiple stable equilibria, so forward-looking behaviour requires characterisation of global stability in a non-linear dynamic system (a potentially intractable problem). This paper's main contribution is to present a set of solution techniques-partly analytic and partly numerical-that allows consideration of forward-looking expectations. Surprisingly, we find that if migration costs are sufficiently high, allowing forward-looking behaviour changes nothing, so static expectations are truly an assumption of convenience. If migration costs are lower, history-vs-expectations considerations emerge. Agglomeration, therefore, can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J, 1990. "Integration and the Competitiveness of Peripheral Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 363, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Puga, Diego, 1999.
"The rise and fall of regional inequalities,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 303-334, February.
- Diego Puga, 1996. "The Rise and Fall of Regional Inequalities," CEP Discussion Papers dp0314, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Diego Puga, 1996. "The rise and fall of regional inequalities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20643, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Puga, Diego, 1997. "The Rise and Fall of Regional Inequalities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, Enero.
- Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995.
"Globalization and the Inequality of Nations,"
NBER Working Papers
5098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," Working Paper Series 430, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J, 1994. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 1015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991.
"Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 878, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Fujita, Masahisa & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 1996.
"Economics of Agglomeration,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 339-378, December.
- Fujita,Masahisa & Thisse,Jacques-FranÃ§ois, 2013. "Economics of Agglomeration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107001411, October.
- Fujita,Masahisa & Thisse,Jacques-FranÃ§ois, 2013. "Economics of Agglomeration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521171960, October.
- Fujita, Masahisa & Thisse, Jacques-François, 1996. "Economics of Agglomeration," CEPR Discussion Papers 1344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fujita, M. & Thisse, J.-F., "undated". "Economics of agglomeration," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1250, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kyoji Fukao & Roland Benabou, 1993. "History Versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 535-542.
- Krugman, Paul, 1991.
"Increasing Returns and Economic Geography,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
- Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
- Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476.
- Venables, Anthony J, 1987. "Trade and Trade Policy with Differentiated Products: A Chamberlinian-Ricardian Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 700-717, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.