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How Does Communal HIV/AIDS Affect Fertility? - Evidence from Malawi

Author

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  • Durevall, Dick

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Lindskog, Annika

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

Recently there has been a surge in interest on how HIV/AIDS affects fertility in countries hit by the disease. In this study, the effect of communal HIV/AIDS on fertility in rural Malawi is estimated using individual data from the 2004 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey on fertility and the ideal number of children. The survey includes individual HIV status, making it possible to distinguish between behavioural and physiological effects. The main indicator of communal HIV/AIDS is the district-level prime-age mortality rate, obtained from the 1998 Population Census. The paper first tests the overall behavioural fertility response due to the epidemic, and then tests for differences in response due to gender-specific communal mortality and HIV rates, as well as individual age and knowledge about mother-to-child HIV transmission. The main findings are: communal HIV/AIDS has a negative but small impact on fertility; actual fertility and women’s ideal number of children is more negatively affected by HIV/AIDS among women than among men; and a woman’s age and knowledge about mother-tochild transmission of HIV are important determinants of her fertility response to the disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2009. "How Does Communal HIV/AIDS Affect Fertility? - Evidence from Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 369, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 25 Aug 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0369
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/20495
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emily Oster, 2005. "Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior, and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 467-515.
    2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    3. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
    4. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    5. Peter J. Glick & David E. Sahn, 2008. "Are Africans Practicing Safer Sex? Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys for Eight Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 397-439.
    6. Mika Ueyama & Futoshi Yamauchi, 2009. "Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: evidence from malawi," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    7. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, June.
    8. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.
    9. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; gender; HIV prevalence; mortality; prime-age adult mortality;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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