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Uncovering the Effect of the HIV Epidemic on Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Malawi

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  • Durevall, Dick

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Lindskog, Annika

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

In many Sub-Saharan countries the HIV epidemic has spread to over 10% of the working-age population, and is likely to affect economically relevant behaviour. We evaluate the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the reproductive behaviour for women in Malawi, allowing for a heterogeneous response depending on age and prior number of births. HIV/AIDS increases the probability that a young woman would give birth to her first child, while it decreases the probability to give birth of older women or of young women who have already given birth. The resulting change in the distribution of fertility across age groups is likely to be more demographically and economically important than changes in the total number of children a woman gives birth to.

Suggested Citation

  • Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2008. "Uncovering the Effect of the HIV Epidemic on Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 318, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0318
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/17898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    2. Mika Ueyama & Futoshi Yamauchi, 2009. "Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: evidence from malawi," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    3. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 279-288, Part II, .
    4. Gustavo Angeles & David Guilkey & Thomas Mroz, 2005. "The determinants of fertility in rural Peru: Program effects in the early years of the national family planning program," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 367-389, June.
    5. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    6. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
    7. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
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    9. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
    10. Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2007. "HIV/AIDS, Adult Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 284, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    11. Barmby, T & Cigno, A, 1990. "A Sequential Probability Model of Fertility Patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 31-51, April.
    12. Chris Papageorgiou & Petia Stoytcheva, 2005. "What Do We Know About the Impact of AIDS on Cross-Country Income So Far?," Departmental Working Papers 2005-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    AIDS; Demographic Transition; HIV; Fertility; Malawi;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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