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HIV/AIDS, Adult Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from Malawi

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  • Durevall, Dick

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Lindskog, Annika

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Malawi. The future course of fertility will have an impact on both macroeconomic variables, such as GDP per capita, and various socioeconomic factors like mother-to-child-transmission of HIV, child mortality, the number of orphans, and public expenditures on schooling. Data on both prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence rates at districts level are used to measure the impact of HIV/AIDS, exploiting the large geographical variation in the distribution of HIV/AIDS in Malawi. Fertility is estimated for individual women, and measured as the number of births given during the last five years. Estimations are also carried out for the desired number of children. The major finding is that HIV/AIDS reduces fertility. Uninfected women both give birth to and desire to have fewer children in districts where prime-age adult mortality and HIV-prevalence are high, and vice versa. However, for young women, aged 15-19, there is a positive relationship between fertility and prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence, possibly because they wish to have children while being uninfected. This is likely to have negative effects on both educational attainment and child mortality. As also shown by previous studies, HIV-infected women give birth to fewer children than uninfected women. This is probably due to changed fertility preferences, as well as to physiological factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2007. "HIV/AIDS, Adult Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 284, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0284
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/9516
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-439, December.
    2. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
    3. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    4. Erasmus U. Morah, 2007. "Are People Aware of Their HIV-positive Status Responsible for Driving the Epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa? The Case of Malawi," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 215-242, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2008. "Uncovering the Effect of the HIV Epidemic on Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 318, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2009.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adult mortality; Desired fertility; Fertility; HIV/AIDS; Malawi; Sub-Saharan Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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