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Survey response in probabilistic questions and its impact on inference

  • de Bresser, Jochem
  • van Soest, Arthur

We develop a panel data model of expectations of a continuous outcome variable elicited on a percentage-chance scale. The model explains the location and dispersion of the subjective distributions by socio-economic covariates and unobserved factors. Moreover, it accounts explicitly for non-response, non-informative focal answers, and recall and rounding errors. We apply the model to the expected retirement income replacement rate of Dutch wage workers. We find that incorporating these features of the answering process increases the size and significance of relationships with covariates. The estimates indicate substantial rounding but few focal answers. Respondents tend to stick to a certain answering strategy: non-response, rounding and especially non-informative focal answers are characterized by substantial unobserved heterogeneity across individuals.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 96 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 65-84

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:96:y:2013:i:c:p:65-84
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

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  7. van Santen, Peter & Alessie, Rob & Kalwij, Adriaan, 2012. "Probabilistic survey questions and incorrect answers: Retirement income replacement rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 267-280.
  8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Measuring Pension-benefit Expectations Probabilistically," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(2), pages 201-236, 06.
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  12. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, September.
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