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The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public's Expectations Vary over Time and across Socio-Economic Groups

  • Bissonnette, Luc

    ()

    (Laval University)

  • van Soest, Arthur

    ()

    (Tilburg University)

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population of ages 25 and older concerning the future generosity state and occupational pensions, the two main pillars of the Dutch pension system. Since the summer of 2006, monthly survey data were collected on the expectations of Dutch households concerning purchasing power of occupational pensions, eligibility and purchasing power of old age social security benefits, and the average retirement age ten or twenty years from now. We investigate how these expectations have changed over time and how they vary with socio-economic characteristics. Exploiting the fact that we have data until September 2010, we also analyze the effect of the recent financial and economic crisis. We find significant differences in expectations of different socio-economic groups, mainly suggesting that groups who are probably better informed were also more pessimistic.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 5759.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, 2012, 1:2
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5759
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  1. Péter Hudomiet & Gábor Kézdi & Robert J. Willis, 2011. "Stock market crash and expectations of American households," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 393-415, 04.
  2. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2006. "Baby Boomer Retirement Security: The Roles of Planning, Financial Literacy, and Housing Wealth," CeRP Working Papers 54, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
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  4. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2005. "The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 587-592, August.
  5. de Grip, Andries & Lindeboom, Maarten & Montizaan, Raymond, 2009. "Shattered Dreams: The Effects of Changing the Pension System Late in the Game," IZA Discussion Papers 4034, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
  7. Hanna van Solinge & Kène Henkens, 2007. "Involuntary Retirement: The Role of Restrictive Circumstances, Timing, and Social Embeddedness," Journals of Gerontology: Series B, Gerontological Society of America, vol. 62(5), pages S295-S303.
  8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, 04.
  9. Michael D. Hurd, 2009. "Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 543-564, 05.
  10. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
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  12. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
  13. Susann Rohwedder & Arthur van Soest, 2006. "The Impact of Misperceptions about Social Security on Saving and Well-being," Working Papers wp118, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  14. Grip Andries de & Lindeboom Maarten & Montizaan Raymond, 2009. "Dreams: The Effects of Changing the Pension System Late in the Game," Research Memorandum 043, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  15. van der Wiel, Karen, 2008. "Preparing for Policy Changes: Social Security Expectations and Pension Scheme Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 3623, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. van der Wiel, Karen, 2009. "Have You Heard the News? How Real-Life Expectations React to Publicity," IZA Discussion Papers 4064, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February.
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