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Can subjective expectations data be used in choice models? Evidence on cognitive biases

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  • Basit Zafar

Abstract

A pervasive concern with the use of subjective data in choice models is that the data are biased and endogenous. This paper examines the extent to which cognitive biases plague subjective data, specifically addressing 1) whether cognitive dissonance affects the reporting of beliefs, and 2) whether individuals exert sufficient mental effort when probed about their subjective beliefs. For this purpose, I collect a unique panel data set of Northwestern University undergraduates that contains their subjective expectations about outcomes specific to different majors in their choice set. I do not find evidence of cognitive biases systematically affecting the reporting of beliefs: By analyzing patterns of belief updating, I can rule out cognitive dissonance being a serious concern in the current setting. Moreover, there seems to be no systematic (nonclassical) measurement error in the reporting of beliefs. In the reported beliefs for the various majors, I find no systematic patterns in mental recall of previous responses or in the extent of rounding. Comparison of subjective beliefs with objective measures suggests that students have well-formed expectations. Overall, the results paint a favorable picture for the use of subjective expectations data in choice models.

Suggested Citation

  • Basit Zafar, 2010. "Can subjective expectations data be used in choice models? Evidence on cognitive biases," Staff Reports 454, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:454
    Note: For a published version of this report, see Basit Zafar, "Can Subjective Expectations Data Be Used in Choice Models? Evidence on Cognitive Biases," Journal of Applied Econometrics 26, no. 3 (April-May 2011): 520-44.
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    14. Pamela Giustinelli, 2016. "Group Decision Making With Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child–Parent Choice Of The High School Track," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 573-602, May.
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    19. Kunz, Johannes S. & Staub, Kevin E., 2020. "Early subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 34-55.
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    21. Francesca Lipari, 2018. "This Is How We Do It: How Social Norms and Social Identity Shape Decision Making under Uncertainty," Games, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-31, December.
    22. de Bresser, J.R., 2013. "Between goals and expectations : Essays on pensions and retirement," Other publications TiSEM 4a23d569-88cd-40fa-aa23-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    23. Costanigro, Marco & Scozzafava, Gabriele & Casini, Leonardo, 2017. "Vertical Differentiation, Perceptions Restructuring, And Wine Choices: The Case Of The Gran Selezione In Chianti Wines," Working Papers 253850, American Association of Wine Economists.
    24. Lukas Kiessling & Pia Pinger & Philipp Seegers & Jan Bergerhoff, 2019. "Gender Differences in Wage Expectations: Sorting, Children, and Negotiation Styles," CESifo Working Paper Series 7827, CESifo.
    25. Dmitry Petrov & Marina Romaguera-de-la-Cruz, 2023. "Measuring economic insecurity with a joint income-wealth approach," Working Papers 637, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; endogeneity; dissonance; cognitive biases; college majors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • J7 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

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