Measuring Pension-benefit Expectations Probabilistically
Research aiming to understand the impact of public and private pension plans on individual decision making has been hampered by a dearth of empirical evidence on benefit expectations. We review the occasional national surveys that have sought to measure pension-benefit expectations and describe our recent efforts to improve the measurement of US Social Security benefit expectations by elicitation of probabilistic expectations about well-defined outcomes. We document striking uncertainty and heterogeneity of beliefs about the long-term existence of the Social Security system and about the level of benefits should the system survive. In so doing, we highlight the additional information that is extracted using our probabilistic elicitation method as opposed to more traditional methods that only seek point forecasts. Copyright 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation 2006 CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd..
Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0039 06 2040234
Fax: 0039 06 2020687
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1121-7081
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1121-7081|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:20:y:2006:i:2:p:201-236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.