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Measuring Pension-benefit Expectations Probabilistically

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  • Jeff Dominitz
  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

Research aiming to understand the impact of public and private pension plans on individual decision making has been hampered by a dearth of empirical evidence on benefit expectations. We review the occasional national surveys that have sought to measure pension-benefit expectations and describe our recent efforts to improve the measurement of US Social Security benefit expectations by elicitation of probabilistic expectations about well-defined outcomes. We document striking uncertainty and heterogeneity of beliefs about the long-term existence of the Social Security system and about the level of benefits should the system survive. In so doing, we highlight the additional information that is extracted using our probabilistic elicitation method as opposed to more traditional methods that only seek point forecasts. Copyright 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation 2006 CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Measuring Pension-benefit Expectations Probabilistically," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(2), pages 201-236, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:20:y:2006:i:2:p:201-236
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9914.2006.00343.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001. "Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 8406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Introduction to "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform"," NBER Chapters,in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1, June.
    4. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1999. "What People Don't Know About Their Pensions and Social Security: An Analysis Using Linked Data from the Health and Retirement Study," NBER Working Papers 7368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2005. "Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4882, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Esen Erdogan Ciftci & Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2015. "Who can predict their Own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. van Santen, Peter & Alessie, Rob & Kalwij, Adriaan, 2012. "Probabilistic survey questions and incorrect answers: Retirement income replacement rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 267-280.
    3. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers 589, RAND Corporation.
    4. van Santen, Peter, 2016. "Uncertain pension income and household saving," Working Paper Series 330, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "The effect of pension reform on pension-benefit expectations and savings decisions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1677-1691, May.
    6. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2009. "Pension Risk, Retirement Saving and Insurance," EIEF Working Papers Series 0902, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2009.
    7. de Bresser, Jochem & van Soest, Arthur, 2013. "Survey response in probabilistic questions and its impact on inference," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-84.
    8. Helen Levy & Kristin Seefeldt, 2008. "How Do Lower-Income Families Think about Retirement?," Working Papers wp195, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    9. Luc Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2015. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Cahiers de recherche 1503, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    10. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2010. "Individuals' Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice," Working Papers WR-782, RAND Corporation.
    11. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Individuals' uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio choice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 498-519, April.
    12. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_237 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Markus Knell & Esther Segalla & Andrea Weber, 2015. "Expected retirement age and pension benefits in Austria: evidence from survey data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 35-57.
    14. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Individuals' uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio choice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 498-519, April.
    15. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2013. "Pension Wealth Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 1057-1085, December.
    16. Fang, H., 2016. "Insurance Markets for the Elderly," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier.
    17. Jochem Bresser & Arthur Soest, 2015. "Retirement Expectations and Satisfaction with Retirement Provisions," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(1), pages 119-139, March.

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