IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/11065.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effect of Pension Reform on Pension-Benefit Expectations and Savings Decisions in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • OKUMURA Tsunao
  • USUI Emiko

Abstract

Using the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR), a Japanese panel survey of people age 50 or older, we find that many Japanese in their early 50s—compared to those in their late 50s and early 60s—expect their level of public pension benefits to decline. We find that recent pension reform (which raised the pensionable age) affected people by increasing the age when they expect to claim their benefits by almost the exact amount for all. Nevertheless, the effect of reform on their expectations for future benefits remained insignificant. We also find evidence that anxiety about the public pension program's future induces people to save more.

Suggested Citation

  • OKUMURA Tsunao & USUI Emiko, 2011. "Effect of Pension Reform on Pension-Benefit Expectations and Savings Decisions in Japan," Discussion papers 11065, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:11065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/11e065.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2010. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub08-1, March.
    2. Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2187-2212, December.
    3. C. Y. Horioka & H. Fujisaki & W. Watanabe & T. Kouno, 2000. "Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31.
    4. Takashi Oshio & Satoshi Shimizutani & Akiko Sato Oishi, 2010. "Does Social Security Induce Withdrawal of the Old from the Labor Force and Create Jobs for the Young? The Case of Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, pages 217-241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "The effect of pension reform on pension-benefit expectations and savings decisions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1677-1691, May.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    7. Charles Yuji HORIOKA & Wataru SUZUKI & Tatsuo HATTA, 2007. "Aging, Savings, and Public Pensions in Japan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(2), pages 303-319, December.
    8. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Old Age Savings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 110-115, May.
    10. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Individuals' uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio choice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 498-519, April.
    11. Horioka, C.Y. & Fujisaki, H. & Watanabe, W. & Kouno, T., 2000. "Are Americans more Altruistic than the Japanese Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives," ISER Discussion Paper 0487, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    12. Takashi Oshio & Akiko Sato Oishi & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2011. "Social Security Reforms And Labour Force Participation Of The Elderly In Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 248-271, June.
    13. ICHIMURA Hidehiko & SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi & HASHIMOTO Hideki, 2009. "JSTAR First Results 2009 Report," Discussion papers 09047, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," NBER Working Papers 8718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2011. "The portfolio effect of pension reforms: evidence from Italy," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 75-97, January.
    16. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Measuring Pension‐benefit Expectations Probabilistically," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(2), pages 201-236, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marek Gora & Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, 2020. "Migration with pension reform expectations," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 203-219.
    2. Bertoni, Marco & Brunello, Giorgio & Mazzarella, Gianluca, 2018. "Does postponing minimum retirement age improve healthy behaviors before retirement? Evidence from middle-aged Italian workers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 215-227.
    3. Marco Bertoni & Giorgio Brunello, 2014. "Pappa Ante Portas: The Retired Husband Syndrome in Japan," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0182, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    4. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "The effect of pension reform on pension-benefit expectations and savings decisions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1677-1691, May.
    5. Elinder, Mikael & Hagen, Johannes & Nordin, Mattias & Säve-Söderbergh, Jenny, 2020. "Who lacks pension knowledge, why and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 2020:24, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    6. Emiko Usui & Satoshi Shimizutani & Takashi Oshio, 2016. "Are Japanese Men of Pensionable Age Underemployed or Overemployed?," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 150-168, June.
    7. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2017. "An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 702-721, February.
    8. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.
    9. Lei Yan & Xubin Lei & Kairong Hong & Hui Li & Mengyuan Chen, 2022. "Improving Farmer Willingness to Participate in the Transfer of Land Rights in Rural China: A Preference-Based Income Distribution Scheme," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, March.
    10. Bertoni, Marco & Brunello, Giorgio, 2017. "Pappa Ante Portas: The effect of the husband's retirement on the wife's mental health in Japan," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 135-142.
    11. Okumura, Tsunao & Usui, Emiko, 2021. "Pension Expectations and Household Portfolio Choice of the Elderly in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 694, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Junya Hamaaki, 2013. "The Pension System and Household Consumption and Saving Behavior," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 687-716, September.
    14. N Renuga Nagarajan & Mineko Wada & Mei Lan Fang & Andrew Sixsmith, 2019. "Defining organizational contributions to sustaining an ageing workforce: a bibliometric review," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 337-361, September.
    15. Marek Gora & Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, 2020. "Migration with pension reform expectations," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 203-219.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2011. "A new anatomy of the retirement process in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 141-152.
    2. Satoshi Shimizutani & Takashi Oshio, 2016. "Public Pension Benefits Claiming Behaviour: new Evidence from the Japanese Study on Ageing and Retirement," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 235-256, September.
    3. Junya Hamaaki, 2013. "The Pension System and Household Consumption and Saving Behavior," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 687-716, September.
    4. Takashi Oshio & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2012. "Disability Pension Program and Labor Force Participation in Japan: An Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Historical Trends in Mortality and Health, Employment, and Disability Insurance Participatio, pages 391-417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Satoshi Shimizutani & Takashi Oshio & Mayu Fujii, 2014. "Option Value of Work, Health Status, and Retirement Decisions in Japan: Evidence from the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Disability Insurance Programs and Retirement, pages 497-535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Shimizutani, Satoshi & 清水谷, 諭 & Fujii, Mayu & 藤井, 麻由 & Oshio, Takashi & 小塩, 隆士, 2012. "Option Value of Work, Health Status, and Retirement Decisions: New Evidence from the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)," CIS Discussion paper series 566, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Fang, H., 2016. "Insurance Markets for the Elderly," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 237-309, Elsevier.
    8. Bissonnette, L. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2010. "Retirement Expectations, Preferences, and Decisions," Other publications TiSEM 45e93b08-cc1d-47c6-ba06-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. ICHIMURA Hidehiko & SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi, 2011. "Retirement Process in Japan: New evidence from Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)," Discussion papers 11080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Okumura, Tsunao & Usui, Emiko, 2021. "Pension Expectations and Household Portfolio Choice of the Elderly in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 694, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Luigi Ventura & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2020. "The wealth decumulation behavior of the retired elderly in Italy: the importance of bequest motives and precautionary saving," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 575-597, September.
    12. Emiko Usui & Satoshi Shimizutani & Takashi Oshio, 2016. "Are Japanese Men of Pensionable Age Underemployed or Overemployed?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 150-168, June.
    13. Charles Yuji Horioka & Luigi Ventura, 2024. "Do the Retired Elderly in Europe Decumulate Their Wealth? The Importance of Bequest Motives, Precautionary Saving, Public Pensions, and Homeownership," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 70(1), pages 187-212, March.
    14. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2009. "Pension Risk, Retirement Saving and Insurance," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/18, European University Institute.
    15. Bertoni, Marco & Brunello, Giorgio & Mazzarella, Gianluca, 2018. "Does postponing minimum retirement age improve healthy behaviors before retirement? Evidence from middle-aged Italian workers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 215-227.
    16. Jochem Bresser & Arthur Soest, 2015. "Retirement Expectations and Satisfaction with Retirement Provisions," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(1), pages 119-139, March.
    17. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2013. "Pension Wealth Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 1057-1085, December.
    18. Shimizutani, Satoshi & Oshio, Takashi, 2013. "Revisiting the labor supply effect of social security earnings test: New evidence from its elimination and reinstatement in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 99-111.
    19. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2010. "The (dis)saving behavior of the aged in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 151-158, August.
    20. John Laitner & Daniel Silverman & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2014. "Annuitized Wealth and Post-Retirement Saving," NBER Working Papers 20547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:11065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.