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Rationalizing rational expectations: characterizations and tests

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier d' Haultfoeuille
  • Christophe Gaillac

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Arnaud Maurel

Abstract

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two dierent datasets that cannot be matched. We show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribu- tion of realizations being a mean-preserving spread of the distribution of beliefs. The null hypothesis can then be rewritten as a system of many moment inequal- ity and equality constraints, for which tests have been recently developed in the literature. The test is robust to measurement errors under some restrictions and can be extended to account for aggregate shocks. Finally, we apply our methodology to test for rational expectations about future earnings. While individuals tend to be right on average about their future earnings, our test strongly rejects rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier d' Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: characterizations and tests," Post-Print hal-03346328, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03346328
    DOI: 10.3982/qe1724
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    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Marta Cota, 2023. "Extrapolative Income Expectations and Retirement Savings," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp751, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. X D’Haultfœuille & C Gaillac & A Maurel, 2025. "Partially Linear Models under Data Combination," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(1), pages 238-267.
    4. Yifan Chen & Jianhua Gang & Zongxin Qian & Jinfan Zhang, 2023. "Rationality test in the housing market: Project‐level evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 583-616, June.
    5. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. Orazio Attanasio & V’ctor Sancibri‡n & Federica Ambrosio, 2025. "New Measures for Richer Theories: Some Thoughts and an Example," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2477, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Bérengère Patault & Flavien Moreau, 2024. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1319-1366.
    8. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Kunaschk, Max & Lang, Julia & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2023. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," IZA Discussion Papers 16426, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Fezzi, Carlo & Menapace, Luisa & Raffaelli, Roberta, 2021. "Estimating risk preferences integrating insurance choices with subjective beliefs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Gabriella Conti & Pamela Giustinelli, 2025. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost‐Benefit Trade‐Offs in Health Behavior: An Application to Lockdown Compliance in the United Kingdom," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 992-1012, May.
    11. Crossley, Thomas F. & Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs: A new measure and decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    12. Gabriella Conti & Pamela Giustinelli, 2023. "For better or worse? Subjective expectations and cost-benefit trade-offs in health behavior," IFS Working Papers W23/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Jackson Bunting & Paul Diegert & Arnaud Maurel, 2024. "Heterogeneity, Uncertainty and Learning: Semiparametric Identification and Estimation," Papers 2402.08575, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    14. Ashesh Rambachan, 2022. "Identifying Prediction Mistakes in Observational Data," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Artificial Intelligence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner & Yuxi Yao, 2025. "The Role of Nonpecuniary Considerations: Location Decisions of College Graduates From Low‐Income Backgrounds," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(2), pages 903-931, May.
    16. Lin Chuan & Stavros Sindakis & Panagiotis Theodorou, 2024. "Examining the Impact of Political Stability on Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8179-8208, June.
    17. Hartmann, Ida Maria & Leth-Petersen, Søren, 2024. "Subjective unemployment expectations and (self-)insurance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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