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Getting In and Getting Through: Ex Ante Beliefs and Counterfactual Outcomes in Centralized College Admissions

Author

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  • Pamela Giustinelli
  • Edwin Leuven

Abstract

We study belief accuracy in a centralized higher-education admissions system using Norwegian data that combine a large pre-admission expectations survey with administrative records on offers, enrollment, and completion. Program-specific cutoffs provide a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that identifies objective counterfactual outcomes at the admission margin and allows direct comparison with subjective, state-contingent beliefs (first-choice access versus the relevant second-choice offer state). We find that enrollment forecast errors are driven mainly by mistaken beliefs about offer probabilities, while beliefs about enrollment conditional on an offer are comparatively accurate. For completion, the dominant error is persistence optimism: applicants substantially overestimate completion conditional on enrollment under both access states. Applicants also overstate first-minus-second returns for both enrollment and completion. These errors are economically meaningful for choices: in a partial-equilibrium counterfactual exercise, correcting beliefs implies large declines in the predicted probability of keeping the currently ranked first choice on top.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Giustinelli & Edwin Leuven, 2026. "Getting In and Getting Through: Ex Ante Beliefs and Counterfactual Outcomes in Centralized College Admissions," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26066, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26066
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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education

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