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Welfare Dependence and Self-Control: An Empirical Analysis

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Abstract

We use data from Florida Transition Program, a welfare reform experiment in the 1990s, to estimate a discrete choice dynamic programming model of labor supply and welfare participation with potentially time-inconsistent individuals. The time preference parameters are identified through exclusion restrictions generated by welfare time limits. Around one-fourth of the individuals can be regarded as present-biased, and they exhibit a low degree of naivety. Time-inconsistency reduces income by 15 percent and the net tax contribution by almost half. Present-biased individuals are generally more responsive to policy changes than time-consistent individuals. By aggravating the commitment problem, an increase in welfare benefits reduces utility from a time-consistent perspective. An expansion of Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) can be revenue-neutral due to cross-subsidization between present-biased and time-consistent individuals. A �prowork time limit� is proposed as a more incentivizing policy than standard time limits. A dynamic nonwork tax that is triggered by past employment can generate strong commitment-related incentives and increase utility from a time-consistent perspective. The nonwork tax can be implemented as a targeting intervention, as an estimated 70 percent of present-biased individuals will adopt the policy as a commitment device.

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  • Marc K Chan, 2014. "Welfare Dependence and Self-Control: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper Series 19, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:ecowps:19
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gabrielle Pepin, 2022. "The effects of welfare time limits on access to financial resources: Evidence from the 2010s," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1343-1372, April.
    3. Deborah Cobb-Clark, 2015. "Locus of control and the labor market," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Rothstein, Jesse & von Wachter, Till, 2016. "Social Experiments in the Labor Market," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt6605k20b, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    5. Yu, Pei Cheng, 2020. "Seemingly exploitative contracts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 299-320.
    6. Haan, Peter & Haywood, Luke & Schneider, Ulrich, 2016. "Labor Supply of Mothers: The Role of Time Discounting," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145751, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Keane, M.P. & Thorp, S., 2016. "Complex Decision Making," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 661-709, Elsevier.
    8. Radoslaw Paluszynski & Pei Cheng Yu, "undated". "Optimal Taxation with Risky Human Capital and Retirement Savings," Discussion Papers 2019-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    9. Chan, M. & Dalla-Zuanna, A. & Liu, K., 2023. "Understanding Program Complementarities: Estimating the Dynamic Effects of Head Start with Multiple Alternatives," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Sebastian Galiani & Juan Pantano, 2021. "Structural Models: Inception and Frontier," NBER Working Papers 28698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Moser, Christian & Olea de Souza e Silva, Pedro, 2019. "Optimal Paternalistic Savings Policies," MPRA Paper 95383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jaap H. Abbring & Øystein Daljord, 2020. "A Comment On “Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting” By Hanming Fang And Yang Wang," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 565-571, May.
    13. Michael P. Keane & Susan Thorp, 2016. "Complex Decision Making: The Roles of Cognitive Limitations, Cognitive Decline and Ageing," Economics Papers 2016-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. Schiraldi, Pasquale & Levy, Matthew R., 2020. "Identification of intertemporal preferences in history-dependent dynamic discrete choice models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Ryo Nakajima & Michitaka Sasaki & Ryuichi Tamura, 2020. "Examining Patent Examiners: Present Bias, Procrastination and Task Performance," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-015, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Welfare dependence; hyperbolic discounting; time limits; female labor supply; welfare reform; policy experiment; discrete choice dynamic programming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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