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Explaining And Forecasting Results Of The Self-sufficiency Project

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  • Christopher Ferrall

Abstract

This paper models the Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP), a controlled randomized experiment concerning welfare. The model of household behavior includes stochastic labor market skill, job opportunities, and value of non-labor market time. All the variation within and between treatment groups, jurisdictions (provinces),demographic groups, and sub-experiments is derived from four underlying sources:policy variation, endogenous selection into the experimental samples, the SSP treatments themselves, and different mixtures over 4 underlying types. Using the variation within the treatment group is quantitatively important for identifying the complex model: EfficientGMM the parameters are estimated precisely and variation within the treatment group is much more important for identification than either variation within the control group or between treatment and control groups. The model tracks the primary moments well within sample and out-of-sample except for under-estimating the difference in the entry sample. Predictions of the estimated model are computed for different welfare reform experiments. The details of the design are critical for interpretation of the results and it appears that the small SSP+ treatment may have longer lasting impacts than the an in-sample impact analysis would suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Ferrall, 2008. "Explaining And Forecasting Results Of The Self-sufficiency Project," Working Paper 1165, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Kenneth I. Wolpin & Petra E. Todd, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1384-1417, December.
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    11. Christopher Ferrall, 2005. "Solving Finite Mixture Models: Efficient Computation in Economics Under Serial and Parallel Execution," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 343-379, June.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. GMM and its application outside finance
      by Chris Auld in ChrisAuld.com on 2013-10-22 00:55:38

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Cahuc & Pauline Carry & Franck Malherbet & Pedro S Martins, 2022. "Employment Effects of Restricting Fixed-Term Contracts: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers hal-03881622, HAL.
    2. Marc K. Chan & Kai Liu, 2018. "Life‐cycle and intergenerational effects of child care reforms," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 659-706, July.
    3. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2015. "Evaluating search and matching models using experimental data," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Schorfheide, Frank & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2016. "To hold out or not to hold out," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 332-345.
    5. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Hiring Credits," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 593-626.
    6. Christopher Ferrall, 2002. "Estimation And Inference In Social Experiments," Working Paper 1008, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Sebastian Galiani & Juan Pantano, 2021. "Structural Models: Inception and Frontier," NBER Working Papers 28698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3dn0o0jvtp972r5lmr1fd29k5c is not listed on IDEAS
    9. R. Vincent Pohl, 2018. "Medicaid And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers: Implications For Health Care Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1283-1313, August.
    10. Marc K. Chan, 2017. "Welfare Dependence and Self-Control: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1379-1423.
    11. Marc K. Chan & Robert Moffitt, 2018. "Welfare Reform and the Labor Market," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 347-381, August.
    12. Esther Duflo & Rema Hanna & Stephen P. Ryan, 2012. "Incentives Work: Getting Teachers to Come to School," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1241-1278, June.
    13. Maibom, Jonas, 2021. "The Welfare Effects of Mandatory Reemployment Programs: Combining a Structural Model and Experimental Data," IZA Discussion Papers 14866, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Household Behavior; Welfare Policy; Controlled Experiments; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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