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Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments

Author

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  • Ferrall, Christopher

Abstract

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the outcome of experiments carried out on forward-looking subjects. Natural experiments, unexpected policy changes, and true experiments are all included in the framework as special cases. These concepts are defined in conjunction with explicit notions of controlled and randomized experiments. The persistent issues of sample-selection bias and heterogeneous impacts that surround interpretations of experiments are endogenous to the model. Special attention is given to interpreting empirical impact of the treatment within the model. The environments in which estimated mean impacts correspond to mean subjective impacts are specified, and they are found to be a small, uninteresting subset of environments contained within the framework.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ferrall, Christopher, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273435, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:273435
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273435
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2005. "Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes," Working Paper Series 2005:11, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    3. Christopher Ferrall, 2012. "Explaining and Forecasting Results of the Self-sufficiency Project," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1495-1526.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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