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Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments

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  • Christopher Ferral

    () (Department of Economics, Queen's University)

Abstract

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the outcome of experiments carried out on forward-looking subjects. Natural experiments, unexpected policy changes, and true experiments are all included in the framework as special cases. These concepts are defined in conjunction with explicit notions of controlled and randomized experiments. The persistent issues of sample-selection bias and heterogeneous impacts that surround interpretations of experiments are endogenous to the model. Special attention is given to interpreting empirical impact of the treatment within the model. The environments in which estimated mean impacts correspond to mean subjective impacts are specified, and they are found to be a small, uninteresting subset of environments contained within the framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Ferral, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments," Working Papers 1008, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1008
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1008.pdf
    File Function: First version 2002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2005. "Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes," Working Paper Series 2005:11, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treatment Effects; Impact Analysis; Dynamic Programming; Policy Experiments;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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