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Direct estimation of policy impacts

  • Hidehiko Ichimura


    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Tokyo)

  • Christopher Taber

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

This paper specifies a general set of conditions under which the impacts of a policy can be identified using data generated under a different policy regime. We show that some of the policy impacts can be identified under relatively weak conditions on the data and structure of a model. Based on the identification result we develop estimators of policy impacts. We discuss a nonparametric method to implement the estimation but also discuss semparametric methods in order to reduce the conditioning dimension. We then provide an empirical example of the impact of tuition subisdies using the ideas. While the framework used in this paper is fairly narrow, we believe this approach can be applied to a broad set of problems.

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Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W00/05.

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Length: 43 pp
Date of creation: 03 Apr 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:00/05
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  1. Flinn, C. & Heckman, J., 1982. "New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-168, January.
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  8. Manski, C.F. & Nagin, D.S., 1996. "Bounding Disagreements About Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism," Working papers 9526r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  9. Heckman, James J & Lochner, Lance & Taber, Christopher, 1998. "General-Equilibrium Treatment Effects: A Study of Tuition Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-86, May.
  10. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
  11. James J. Heckman, 2000. "Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 45-97.
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  16. repec:fth:prinin:311 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Joshua D. Angrist & Kathryn Graddy & Guido W. Imbens, 2000. "The Interpretation of Instrumental Variables Estimators in Simultaneous Equations Models with an Application to the Demand for Fish," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 499-527.
  18. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," NBER Working Papers 6699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
  20. Bjorklund, Anders & Moffitt, Robert, 1987. "The Estimation of Wage Gains and Welfare Gains in Self-selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 42-49, February.
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  23. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1999. "Comment on James J. Heckman, "Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations"," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(4), pages 823-827.
  24. James J. Heckman, 1999. "Instrumental Variables: Response to Angrist and Imbens," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(4), pages 828-837.
  25. Heckman, James J, 1990. "Varieties of Selection Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 313-18, May.
  26. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
  27. Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-49, September.
  28. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
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