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Direct estimation of policy impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Hidehiko Ichimura

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Tokyo)

  • Christopher Taber

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

This paper specifies a general set of conditions under which the impacts of a policy can be identified using data generated under a different policy regime. We show that some of the policy impacts can be identified under relatively weak conditions on the data and structure of a model. Based on the identification result we develop estimators of policy impacts. We discuss a nonparametric method to implement the estimation but also discuss semparametric methods in order to reduce the conditioning dimension. We then provide an empirical example of the impact of tuition subisdies using the ideas. While the framework used in this paper is fairly narrow, we believe this approach can be applied to a broad set of problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2000. "Direct estimation of policy impacts," IFS Working Papers W00/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:00/05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:1:p:16-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Abbring, Jaap H., 2003. "Dynamic Econometric Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 804, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Schorfheide, Frank & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2016. "To hold out or not to hold out," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 332-345.
    4. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2002. "Semiparametric Reduced-Form Estimation of Tuition Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 286-292, May.
    5. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2013. "The impact of avian flu on livelihood outcomes in Africa: evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Pedro Carneiro & Michael Lokshin & Nithin Umapathi, 2017. "Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 16-36, January.
    7. Christopher Ferrall, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments," General Economics and Teaching 0209001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Carneiro, Pedro & Lee, Sokbae, 2009. "Estimating distributions of potential outcomes using local instrumental variables with an application to changes in college enrollment and wage inequality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 191-208, April.
    9. Ranjeeta Thomas, 2012. "Conditional Cash Transfers To Improve Education And Health: An Ex Ante Evaluation Of Red De Protección Social, Nicaragua," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 1136-1154, October.
    10. Petra E. Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Guy Lacroix, 2012. "Fighting Poverty: Assessing the Effect of a Guaranteed Minimum Income Proposal in Québec," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-36, CIRANO.
    12. Zantomio, Francesca, 2008. "The route to take-up: raising incentives or lowering barriers?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-35, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Christopher Ferrall, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments," General Economics and Teaching 0209001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Edward Vytlacil & James J. Heckman, 2001. "Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 107-111, May.
    15. Thomas, R, 2011. "Using a Semiparametric Estimator to Forecast Education Outcomes in Nicaragua's Red de Proteccion Social," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

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