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Using a Semiparametric Estimator to Forecast Education Outcomes in Nicaragua's Red de Proteccion Social

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  • Thomas, R

Abstract

This paper uses baseline data from the randomized experiment of the conditional cash transfer program - Red de Proteccion Social, Nicaragua to conduct an ex ante evaluation and compares results to those of the experimental evaluation. Reduced form estimation of a behavioural model using a health production framework forms the basis of the evaluation. A Klein and Spady semi-parametric single index model is used to predict unobserved outcomes under the treatment. The sample consists of children aged 7-13 who have not completed grade 4 of primary school. The evaluation shows that the ex ante approach closely matches the experimental outcomes in most cases. ex ante evaluation conditional cash transfers single index models education

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, R, 2011. "Using a Semiparametric Estimator to Forecast Education Outcomes in Nicaragua's Red de Proteccion Social," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:11/02
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mullahy, John, 1998. "Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-281, June.
    2. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher R. Taber, 2000. "Direct Estimation of Policy Impacts," NBER Technical Working Papers 0254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Manning, Willard G., 1998. "The logged dependent variable, heteroscedasticity, and the retransformation problem," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-295, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ex ante evaluation; conditional cash transfers; single index models; education; health production function;

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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