IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/ifauwp/2005_011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Abbring, Jaap H

    (Free University Amsterdam)

  • van den Berg, Gerard J

    (Free University Amsterdam)

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical analysis of treatment effects on duration outcomes from data that contain instrumental variation. We focus on social experiments in which an intention to treat is randomized and compliance may be imperfect. We distinguish between cases where the treatment starts at the moment of randomization and cases where it starts at a later point in time. We derive exclusion restrictions under various informational and behavioral assumptions and we analyze identifiability under these restrictions. It turns out that randomization (and by implication, instrumental variation) by itself is often insufficient for inference on interesting effects, and needs to be augmented by a semi-parametric structure. We develop corresponding non- and semi-parametric tests and estimation methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2005. "Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes," Working Paper Series 2005:11, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2005_011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ifau.se/upload/pdf/se/2005/wp05-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerard J. van den Berg & Bas van der Klaauw, 2006. "Counseling And Monitoring Of Unemployed Workers: Theory And Evidence From A Controlled Social Experiment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 895-936, August.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Monotone Treatment Response," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1311-1334, November.
    3. van den Berg, Gerard J., 2007. "An Economic Analysis of Exclusion Restrictions for Instrumental Variable Estimation," IZA Discussion Papers 2585, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Berg & Jan C. Ours, 2005. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions on the Transition Rate from Unemployment to Employment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 602-630, July.
    5. Andrew Chesher, 2002. "Semiparametric identification in duration models," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Alberto Abadie & Joshua Angrist & Guido Imbens, 2002. "Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 91-117, January.
    7. R. A. Kortram & A. C. M. van Rooij & A. J. Lenstra & G. Ridder, 1995. "Constructive identification of the mixed proportional hazards model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 49(3), pages 269-281, November.
    8. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Ridder, Geert, 2005. "Correcting for selective compliance in a re-employment bonus experiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 77-111.
    9. Meyer, Bruce D, 1996. "What Have We Learned from the Illinois Reemployment Bonus Experiment?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 26-51, January.
    10. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    11. Christopher Ferrall, 2002. "Estimation And Inference In Social Experiments," Working Paper 1008, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    13. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    14. James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber, 1994. "Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    16. Curtis Eberwein & John C. Ham & Robert J. Lalonde, 1997. "The Impact of Being Offered and Receiving Classroom Training on the Employment Histories of Disadvantaged Women: Evidence from Experimental Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 655-682.
    17. Jaap H. Abbring & Pierre-André Chiappori & Jean Pinquet, 2003. "Moral Hazard and Dynamic Insurance Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(4), pages 767-820, June.
    18. Lawrence F. Katz & Jeffrey R. Kling & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Moving to Opportunity in Boston: Early Results of a Randomized Mobility Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 607-654.
    19. James Heckman & Jeffrey Smith & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Accounting For Dropouts In Evaluations Of Social Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 1-14, February.
    20. Jaap H. Abbring & Pierre-André Chiappori & Jean Pinquet, 2003. "Moral Hazard and Dynamic Insurance Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(4), pages 767-820, June.
    21. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Van Den Berg, 2003. "The identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards competing risks model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(3), pages 701-710, August.
    22. Richardson, Katarina & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2002. "The effect of vocational employment training on the individual transition rate from unemployment to work," Working Paper Series 2002:8, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    23. van Ours, J.C. & van den Berg, G., 1997. "Eyeballing state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in aggregate unemployment duration data," Other publications TiSEM 123b1d37-4898-4b05-a85b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    24. Guido W. Imbens & Donald B. Rubin, 1997. "Estimating Outcome Distributions for Compliers in Instrumental Variables Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 555-574.
    25. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    26. Abadie A., 2002. "Bootstrap Tests for Distributional Treatment Effects in Instrumental Variable Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 284-292, March.
    27. James Heckman, 1997. "Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(3), pages 441-462.
    28. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
    29. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bonev, Petyo & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 9782, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Gerard J. van den Berg & Petyo Bonev & Enno Mammen, 2020. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 355-367, May.
    3. Jaap Abbring & James Heckman, 2008. "Dynamic policy analysis," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    5. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    6. Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke, 2016. "Heterogeneous impacts on earnings from an early effort in labor market programs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 266-279.
    7. Graversen, B.K. & van Ours, J.C., 2006. "How to Help Unemployed Find Jobs Quickly : Experimental Evidence from a Mandatory Activation Program," Other publications TiSEM 4762e132-4660-4c32-8813-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Rosholm, Michael, 2008. "Experimental Evidence on the Nature of the Danish Employment Miracle," Working Papers 08-14, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    9. Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2016. "Program Evaluation with Right-Censored Data," Papers 1604.02642, arXiv.org.
    10. Falavigna Falavigna & Elena Ragazzi & Lisa Sella, "undated". "Vocational training and labour market: inclusion or segregation paths? An integrated approach on immigrant trainees in Piedmont," CERIS Working Paper 201425, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    11. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
    12. G.E. Bijwaard, 2002. "Instrumental Variable Estimation for Duration Data: A Reappraisal of the Illinois Reemployment Bonus Experiment," Econometrics 0204001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. German Blanco & Xuan Chen & Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2020. "Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes Under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, October.
    14. Ruth Miquel, 2002. "Identification of Dynamic Treatment Effects by Instrumental Variables," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    15. van Ours, Jan C. & Krogh Graversen, Brian, 2007. "How to Help Unemployed Find Jobs Quickly; Experimental Evidence from a Mandatory Activation Program," CEPR Discussion Papers 6057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Bonev, Petyo, 2020. "Nonparametric identification in nonseparable duration models with unobserved heterogeneity," Economics Working Paper Series 2005, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    17. Stephen Kastoryano & Bas van der Klaauw, 2022. "Dynamic evaluation of job search assistance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 227-241, March.
    18. McVicar, Duncan, 2008. "Job search monitoring intensity, unemployment exit and job entry: Quasi-experimental evidence from the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1451-1468, December.
    19. Bierens Herman J & Carvalho Jose R, 2011. "Job Search, Conditional Treatment and Recidivism: The Employment Services for Ex-Offenders Program Reconsidered," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-40, January.
    20. Weber, Andrea & Hofer, Helmut, 2003. "Active Job-search Programs a Promising Tool? A Microeconometric Evaluation for Austria," Economics Series 131, Institute for Advanced Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event-history analysis; intention to treat; non-compliance; policy evaluation; selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2005_011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ali Ghooloo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifagvse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.