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Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes

  • Abbring, Jaap H


    (Free University Amsterdam)

  • van den Berg, Gerard J


    (Free University Amsterdam)

This paper examines the empirical analysis of treatment effects on duration outcomes from data that contain instrumental variation. We focus on social experiments in which an intention to treat is randomized and compliance may be imperfect. We distinguish between cases where the treatment starts at the moment of randomization and cases where it starts at a later point in time. We derive exclusion restrictions under various informational and behavioral assumptions and we analyze identifiability under these restrictions. It turns out that randomization (and by implication, instrumental variation) by itself is often insufficient for inference on interesting effects, and needs to be augmented by a semi-parametric structure. We develop corresponding non- and semi-parametric tests and estimation methods.

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Paper provided by IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005:11.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 03 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2005_011
Contact details of provider: Postal: IFAU, P O Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
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  1. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew Chesher, 2002. "Semiparametric identification in duration models," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. repec:att:wimass:9604 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
  6. Jaap H. Abbring & Pierre-Andre Chiappori, 2004. "Moral Hazard and Dynamic Insurance Data," 2004 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Meyer, Bruce D, 1996. "What Have We Learned from the Illinois Reemployment Bonus Experiment?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 26-51, January.
  8. van den Berg, Gerard, 2007. "An economic analysis of exclusion restrictions for instrumental variable estimation," Working Paper Series 2007:10, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  9. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Ridder, Geert, 2005. "Correcting for selective compliance in a re-employment bonus experiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 77-111.
  10. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
  11. van den Berg, Gerard J. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2001. "Counseling and Monitoring of Unemployed Workers: Theory and Evidence from a Controlled Social Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 374, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
  13. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Berg & Jan C. Ours, 2005. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions on the Transition Rate from Unemployment to Employment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 602-630, 07.
  14. van Ours, J.C. & van den Berg, G., 1997. "Eyeballing state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in aggregate unemployment duration data," Other publications TiSEM 123b1d37-4898-4b05-a85b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  15. James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber, 1994. "Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Richardson, Katarina & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2002. "The effect of vocational employment training on the individual transition rate from unemployment to work," Working Paper Series 2002:8, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  17. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards competing risks model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(3), pages 701-710.
  18. Curtis Eberwein & John C. Ham & Robert J. Lalonde, 1997. "The Impact of Being Offered and Receiving Classroom Training on the Employment Histories of Disadvantaged Women: Evidence from Experimental Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 655-682.
  19. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier.
  20. Guido W. Imbens & Donald B. Rubin, 1997. "Estimating Outcome Distributions for Compliers in Instrumental Variables Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 555-574.
  21. Abadie A., 2002. "Bootstrap Tests for Distributional Treatment Effects in Instrumental Variable Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 284-292, March.
  22. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Monotone Treatment Response," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1311-1334, November.
  23. James Heckman, 1997. "Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(3), pages 441-462.
  24. Lawrence F. Katz & Jeffrey R. Kling & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Moving to Opportunity in Boston: Early Results of a Randomized Mobility Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 607-654.
  25. Christopher Ferrall, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments," General Economics and Teaching 0209001, EconWPA.
  26. Alberto Abadie & Joshua Angrist & Guido Imbens, 2002. "Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 91-117, January.
  27. Jean Pinquet & Jaap Abbring & Pierre-André Chiappori, 2003. "Moral Hazard and Dynamic Insurance Data," Post-Print hal-00397121, HAL.
  28. Christopher Ferral, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Social Experiments," Working Papers 1008, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  29. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
  30. James Heckman & Jeffrey Smith & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Accounting For Dropouts In Evaluations Of Social Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 1-14, February.
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