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Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance

Author

Listed:
  • Blanco, German
  • Chen, Xuan
  • Flores, Carlos A.
  • Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso

Abstract

We consider the problem of assessing the effects of a treatment on duration outcomes using data from a randomized evaluation with noncompliance. For such settings, we derive nonparametric sharp bounds for average and quantile treatment effects addressing three pervasive problems simultaneously: self-selection into the spell of interest, endogenous censoring of the duration outcome, and noncompliance with the assigned treatment. Ignoring any of these issues could yield biased estimates of the effects. Notably, the proposed bounds do not impose the independent censoring assumption|which is commonly used to address censoring but is likely to fail in important settings|or exclusion restrictions to address endogeneity of censoring and selection. Instead, they employ monotonicity and stochastic dominance assumptions. To illustrate the use of these bounds we assess the effects of the Job Corps (JC) training program on its participants' last complete employment spell duration. Our estimated bounds suggest that JC participation may increase the average duration of the last complete employment spell before week 208 after randomization by at least 5.6 log points (5.8 percent) for individuals who comply with their treatment assignment and experience a complete employment spell whether or not they enrolled in JC. The estimated quantile treatment effects suggest the impacts may be heterogeneous, and strengthen our conclusions based on the estimated average effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanco, German & Chen, Xuan & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, 2018. "Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance," GLO Discussion Paper Series 288, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:288
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Ozkan Eren & Serkan Ozbeklik, 2014. "Who Benefits From Job Corps? A Distributional Analysis Of An Active Labor Market Program," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 586-611, June.
    3. Hall, Robert E., 1979. "A theory of the natural unemployment rate and the duration of employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 153-169, April.
    4. Shepherd, Bryan E. & Gilbert, Peter B. & Lumley, Thomas, 2007. "Sensitivity Analyses Comparing Time-to-Event Outcomes Existing Only in a Subset Selected Postrandomization," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 573-582, June.
    5. Khan, Shakeeb & Tamer, Elie, 2009. "Inference on endogenously censored regression models using conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 104-119, October.
    6. Martin Huber & Giovanni Mellace, 2015. "Sharp Bounds on Causal Effects under Sample Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 129-151, February.
    7. Peter Z. Schochet, 2001. "National Job Corps Study: Methodological Appendixes on the Impact Analysis," Mathematica Policy Research Reports c3abb7b819cd4bc5a09a865d6, Mathematica Policy Research.
    8. David S. Lee, 2009. "Training, Wages, and Sample Selection: Estimating Sharp Bounds on Treatment Effects," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 1071-1102.
    9. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2000. "Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1012, July.
    10. Peter Z. Schochet & John Burghardt & Steven Glazerman, 2001. "National Job Corps Study: The Impacts of Job Corps on Participants' Employment and Related Outcomes," Mathematica Policy Research Reports db6c4204b8e1408bb0c6289ec, Mathematica Policy Research.
    11. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    12. repec:mpr:mprres:2949 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:mpr:mprres:2951 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration Outcomes; Principal Stratification; Partial Identification; Independent Censoring;

    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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