IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/288.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance

Author

Listed:
  • Blanco, German
  • Chen, Xuan
  • Flores, Carlos A.
  • Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso

Abstract

We consider the problem of assessing the effects of a treatment on duration outcomes using data from a randomized evaluation with noncompliance. For such settings, we derive nonparametric sharp bounds for average and quantile treatment effects addressing three pervasive problems simultaneously: self-selection into the spell of interest, endogenous censoring of the duration outcome, and noncompliance with the assigned treatment. Ignoring any of these issues could yield biased estimates of the effects. Notably, the proposed bounds do not impose the independent censoring assumption|which is commonly used to address censoring but is likely to fail in important settings|or exclusion restrictions to address endogeneity of censoring and selection. Instead, they employ monotonicity and stochastic dominance assumptions. To illustrate the use of these bounds we assess the effects of the Job Corps (JC) training program on its participants' last complete employment spell duration. Our estimated bounds suggest that JC participation may increase the average duration of the last complete employment spell before week 208 after randomization by at least 5.6 log points (5.8 percent) for individuals who comply with their treatment assignment and experience a complete employment spell whether or not they enrolled in JC. The estimated quantile treatment effects suggest the impacts may be heterogeneous, and strengthen our conclusions based on the estimated average effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanco, German & Chen, Xuan & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, 2018. "Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance," GLO Discussion Paper Series 288, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/188930/1/GLO-DP-0288.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Blaise Melly, 2013. "Inference on Counterfactual Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2205-2268, November.
    3. Chernozhukov, Victor & Fernández-Val, Iván & Kowalski, Amanda E., 2015. "Quantile regression with censoring and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 201-221.
    4. Ozkan Eren & Serkan Ozbeklik, 2014. "Who Benefits From Job Corps? A Distributional Analysis Of An Active Labor Market Program," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 586-611, June.
    5. Hall, Robert E., 1979. "A theory of the natural unemployment rate and the duration of employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 153-169, April.
    6. Marco Caliendo & Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Arne Uhlendorff, 2013. "Benefit Duration, Unemployment Duration And Job Match Quality: A Regression‐Discontinuity Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 604-627, June.
    7. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    8. Shepherd, Bryan E. & Gilbert, Peter B. & Lumley, Thomas, 2007. "Sensitivity Analyses Comparing Time-to-Event Outcomes Existing Only in a Subset Selected Postrandomization," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 573-582, June.
    9. Khan, Shakeeb & Tamer, Elie, 2009. "Inference on endogenously censored regression models using conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 104-119, October.
    10. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Quantile Selection Models With an Application to Understanding Changes in Wage Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1-28, January.
    11. Martin Huber & Giovanni Mellace, 2015. "Sharp Bounds on Causal Effects under Sample Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 129-151, February.
    12. Peter Z. Schochet, 2001. "National Job Corps Study: Methodological Appendixes on the Impact Analysis," Mathematica Policy Research Reports c3abb7b819cd4bc5a09a865d6, Mathematica Policy Research.
    13. Curtis Eberwein & John C. Ham & Robert J. Lalonde, 1997. "The Impact of Being Offered and Receiving Classroom Training on the Employment Histories of Disadvantaged Women: Evidence from Experimental Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 655-682.
    14. David S. Lee, 2009. "Training, Wages, and Sample Selection: Estimating Sharp Bounds on Treatment Effects," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 1071-1102.
    15. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2000. "Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1012, July.
    16. Peter Z. Schochet & John Burghardt & Steven Glazerman, 2001. "National Job Corps Study: The Impacts of Job Corps on Participants' Employment and Related Outcomes," Mathematica Policy Research Reports db6c4204b8e1408bb0c6289ec, Mathematica Policy Research.
    17. Jorg Stoye, 2009. "More on Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1299-1315, July.
    18. Berg, Gerard J. van den & Bonev, Petyo & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Nonparametric instrumental variable methods for dynamic treatment evaluation," Working Papers 16-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    19. Bhattacharya, Jay & Shaikh, Azeem M. & Vytlacil, Edward, 2012. "Treatment effect bounds: An application to Swan–Ganz catheterization," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 223-243.
    20. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    21. repec:mpr:mprres:2949 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:mpr:mprres:2951 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Xuan & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, 2015. "Going Beyond LATE: Bounding Average Treatment Effects of Job Corps Training," IZA Discussion Papers 9511, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Amin, Vikesh & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Parisian, Daniel J., 2016. "The effect of degree attainment on arrests: Evidence from a randomized social experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 259-273.
    3. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    4. Possebom, Vitor, 2018. "Sharp bounds on the MTE with sample selection," MPRA Paper 89785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    6. Dalla-Zuanna, Antonio & Liu, Kai, 2019. "Understanding Program Complementarities: Estimating the Dynamic Effects of a Training Program with Multiple Alternatives," IZA Discussion Papers 12839, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Strittmatter, Anthony, 2019. "Heterogeneous earnings effects of the job corps by gender: A translated quantile approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Burt S. Barnow & Jeffrey Smith, 2015. "Employment and Training Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Volume 2, pages 127-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dorsett, Richard, 2014. "The effect of temporary in-work support on employment retention: Evidence from a field experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 61-71.
    10. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda Fatima & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2016. "When the Going Gets Tough... Financial Incentives, Duration of Unemployment and Job-Match Quality," IZA Discussion Papers 10044, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2016. "The effect of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on unemployment exits to work and match quality in France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-29.
    12. Hansen, Jörgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 1209, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. C de Chaisemartin & X D’HaultfŒuille, 2018. "Fuzzy Differences-in-Differences," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(2), pages 999-1028.
    14. Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2008. "The Impacts of Labor Market Policies on Job Search Behavior and Post-Unemployment Job Quality," Memorandum 22/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    15. Røed, Knut & Raaum, Oddbjørn, 2003. "The Effect of Programme Participation on the Transition Rate from Unemployment to Employment," Memorandum 13/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    16. Caliendo, Marco & Künn, Steffen & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2016. "Earnings exemptions for unemployed workers: The relationship between marginal employment, unemployment duration and job quality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 177-193.
    17. Donald W. K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi, 2013. "Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 609-666, March.
    18. Anna Godøy & Knut Røed, 2016. "Unemployment Insurance and Underemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(2), pages 158-179, June.
    19. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1761rr is not listed on IDEAS
    20. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bonev, Petyo & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 9782, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2011. "Immigrant–Native Differences in Welfare Participation: The Role of Entry and Exit Rates," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 412-442, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration Outcomes; Principal Stratification; Partial Identification; Independent Censoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.