IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp9782.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • van den Berg, Gerard J.

    (University of Groningen)

  • Bonev, Petyo

    (MINES ParisTech)

  • Mammen, Enno

    (Heidelberg University)

Abstract

We develop a nonparametric instrumental variable approach for the estimation of average treatment effects on hazard rates and conditional survival probabilities, without model structure. We derive constructive identification proofs for average treatment effects under noncompliance and dynamic selection, exploiting instrumental variation taking place during ongoing spells. We derive asymptotic distributions of the corresponding estimators. This includes a detailed examination of noncompliance in a dynamic context. In an empirical application, we evaluate the French labor market policy reform PARE which abolished the dependence of unemployment insurance benefits on the elapsed unemployment duration and simultaneously introduced additional active labor market policy measures. The estimated effect of the reform on the survival function of the duration of unemployment duration is positive and significant. Neglecting selectivity leads to an underestimation of the effects in absolute terms.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bonev, Petyo & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 9782, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9782
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp9782.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka & Ana Prieto, 2010. "L'efficacité des mesures d'accompagnement sur le retour à l'emploi," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(3), pages 599-612.
    2. Gerard J. van den Berg & Antoine Bozio & Mónica Costa Dias, 2020. "Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), pages 871-916, July.
    3. Bruno, CREPON & Muriel, DEJEMEPPE & Marc, GURGAND, 2005. "Counseling the unemployed : does it lower unemployment duration and recurrence ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005034, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    4. Bijwaard, G.E., 2002. "Instrumental variable estimation for duration data," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-39, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2007. "Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 341-396, February.
    6. Janet Currie, 2004. "The Take Up of Social Benefits," NBER Working Papers 10488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), 2007. "Handbook of Econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 6, number 6b.
    8. Kluve, Jochen, 2010. "The effectiveness of European active labor market programs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 904-918, December.
    9. Andrew Chesher, 2002. "Semiparametric identification in duration models," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. repec:adr:anecst:y:2012:i:107-108:p:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Ridder, Geert, 2005. "Correcting for selective compliance in a re-employment bonus experiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 77-111.
    12. Meyer, Bruce D, 1996. "What Have We Learned from the Illinois Reemployment Bonus Experiment?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 26-51, January.
    13. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    14. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    15. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2005. "Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes," Working Paper Series 2005:11, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    16. Ana Prieto, 2000. "L'impact de la dégressivité des allocations chômage sur le taux de reprise d'emploi," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(3), pages 523-534.
    17. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    18. Nicola Pavoni & G. L. Violante, 2007. "Optimal Welfare-to-Work Programs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 283-318.
    19. James J. Heckman & Vytlacil, Edward J., 2007. "Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs, Part I: Causal Models, Structural Models and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 70, Elsevier.
    20. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Evaluating the Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Program," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 569-606, June.
    21. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    22. Curtis Eberwein & John C. Ham & Robert J. Lalonde, 1997. "The Impact of Being Offered and Receiving Classroom Training on the Employment Histories of Disadvantaged Women: Evidence from Experimental Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 655-682.
    23. Howard S. Bloom, 1984. "Estimating the Effect of Job-Training Programs, Using Longitudinal Data: Ashenfelter's Findings Reconsidered," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 19(4), pages 544-556.
    24. Bruno Crépon & Marc Ferracci & Denis Fougere, 2012. "Training the Unemployed in France: How Does it Affect Unemployment Duration and Recurrence?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 107-108, pages 175-199.
    25. Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2016. "The effect of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on unemployment exits to work and match quality in France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-29.
    26. repec:adr:anecst:y:2012:i:107-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), 2007. "Handbook of Econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 6, number 6a.
    28. Crépon, Bruno & Ferracci, Marc & Jolivet, Grégory & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2010. "Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates," IZA Discussion Papers 5265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    29. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. German Blanco & Xuan Chen & Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2020. "Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes Under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, October.
    2. Jad Beyhum & Jean-Pierre FLorens & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2020. "Nonparametric instrumental regression with right censored duration outcomes," Papers 2011.10423, arXiv.org.
    3. Beyhum, Jad & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2020. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression with Right Censored Duration Outcomes," TSE Working Papers 20-1164, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerard J. van den Berg & Petyo Bonev & Enno Mammen, 2020. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 355-367, May.
    2. Jaap Abbring & Gerard Van Den Berg, 2005. "Social experiments and instrumental variables with duration outcomes," IFS Working Papers W05/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Muller, Paul & van der Klaauw, Bas & Heyma, Arjan, 2017. "Comparing Econometric Methods to Empirically Evaluate Job-Search Assistance," IZA Discussion Papers 10531, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jaap Abbring & James Heckman, 2008. "Dynamic policy analysis," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    6. Aderonke Osikominu, 2013. "Quick Job Entry or Long-Term Human Capital Development? The Dynamic Effects of Alternative Training Schemes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 313-342.
    7. Rosholm, Michael, 2008. "Experimental Evidence on the Nature of the Danish Employment Miracle," Working Papers 08-14, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Bijwaard, G.E., 2007. "Instrumental variable estimation of treatment effects for duration outcomes," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. James J. Heckman, 2008. "Econometric Causality," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 76(1), pages 1-27, April.
    10. Picchio, Matteo & van Ours, Jan C., 2013. "Retaining through training even for older workers," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-48.
    11. Caliendo, Marco & Künn, Steffen & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2016. "Earnings exemptions for unemployed workers: The relationship between marginal employment, unemployment duration and job quality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 177-193.
    12. Biewen, Martin & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Waller, Marie, 2007. "Which Program for Whom? Evidence on the Comparative Effectiveness of Public Sponsored Training Programs in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-042, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. van der Klaauw, B. & van Ours, J.C., 2010. "Carrot and Stick : How Reemployment Bonuses and Benefit Sanctions Affect Job Finding Rates," Discussion Paper 2010-66, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. van der Klaauw, B. & van Ours, J.C., 2010. "Carrot and Stick : How Reemployment Bonuses and Benefit Sanctions Affect Job Finding Rates," Discussion Paper 2010-66, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Falavigna Falavigna & Elena Ragazzi & Lisa Sella, "undated". "Vocational training and labour market: inclusion or segregation paths? An integrated approach on immigrant trainees in Piedmont," CERIS Working Paper 201425, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    16. G.E. Bijwaard, 2002. "Instrumental Variable Estimation for Duration Data: A Reappraisal of the Illinois Reemployment Bonus Experiment," Econometrics 0204001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. German Blanco & Xuan Chen & Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2020. "Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects on Duration Outcomes Under Censoring, Selection, and Noncompliance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, October.
    18. Stephan Thomsen, 2009. "Job Search Assistance Programs in Europe: Evaluation Methods and Recent Empirical Findings," FEMM Working Papers 09018, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    19. B. Cockx & C. Goebel & S. Robin, 2009. "Is income support for part-time workers a steppingstone to regular jobs? An application to young long-term unemployed women," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/561, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    20. Brian Graversen & Brian Larsen, 2013. "Is there a threat effect of mandatory activation programmes for the long-term unemployed?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 1031-1051, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hazard rate; duration variable; treatment effects; survival function; noncompliance; regression discontinuity design; unemployment; labor market policy reform; active labor market policy; unemployment benefits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.