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Estimating the Effect of Job-Training Programs, Using Longitudinal Data: Ashenfelter's Findings Reconsidered

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  • Howard S. Bloom

Abstract

This paper is an examination of how autoregressive earnings models commonly used to evaluate job-training programs can produce badly biased estimates of both the magnitude and the temporal pattern of program impacts. Ashenfelter's results are used to illustrate this point, and a new, more appropriate model is used to reanalyze his data. Of particular importance is the finding that the decay in Ashenfelter's estimated training effect for men was produced by a time-varying bias in his model.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard S. Bloom, 1984. "Estimating the Effect of Job-Training Programs, Using Longitudinal Data: Ashenfelter's Findings Reconsidered," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 19(4), pages 544-556.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:19:y:1984:i:4:p:544-556
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    Cited by:

    1. William Duncombe & John Yinger, 2001. "Does School Consolidation Cut Costs?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 33, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    2. Robert Bifulco & William Duncombe & John Yinger, 2005. "Does whole-school reform boost student performance? The case of New York City," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 47-72.
    3. Benjamin Davis & Sudhanshu Handa & Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Marco Stampini & Paul Winters, 2002. "Conditionality and the Impact of Programme Design on Household welfare: Comparing two diverse cash transfer programmes in rural Mexico," Working Papers 02-10, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    4. Alacevich, Caterina & Bonev, Petyo & Söderberg, Magnus, 2021. "Pro-environmental interventions and behavioral spillovers: Evidence from organic waste sorting in Sweden," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Berg, Gerard J. van den & Bonev, Petyo & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Nonparametric instrumental variable methods for dynamic treatment evaluation," Working Papers 16-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    6. Jacobson, Louis & LaLonde, Robert & G. Sullivan, Daniel, 2005. "Estimating the returns to community college schooling for displaced workers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 271-304.
    7. Kevin Hollenbeck & Richard J. Willke, 1991. "The Employment and Earnings Impacts of the Targeted Jobs Tax Credit," Upjohn Working Papers 91-07, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    8. Gerard J. van den Berg & Petyo Bonev & Enno Mammen, 2020. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 355-367, May.
    9. Edward C. Bryant & Kalman Rupp, 1987. "Evaluating the Impact of Ceta On Participant Earnings," Evaluation Review, , vol. 11(4), pages 473-492, August.
    10. Georg F. Camehl & C. Katharina Spieß & Kurt Hahlweg, 2019. "Short- and Mid-Term Effects of a Parenting Program on Maternal Well-Being: Evidence for More and Less Advantaged Mothers," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1062, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Camehl, Georg F. & Spiess, Christa Katharina & Hahlweg, Kurt, 2020. "The Effects of a Parenting Program on Maternal Well-Being: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. David H. Greenberg & Charles Michalopoulos & Philip K. Robin, 2006. "Do experimental and nonexperimental evaluations give different answers about the effectiveness of government-funded training programs?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 523-552.
    13. Camehl Georg F. & Spiess Christa Katharina & Hahlweg Kurt, 2020. "The Effects of a Parenting Program on Maternal Well-Being: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 1-26, October.
    14. Sheena McConnell & Steven Glazerman, 2001. "National Job Corps Study: The Benefits and Costs of Job Corps," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 19ff8678a108410587c5dfad0, Mathematica Policy Research.
    15. Howard S. Bloom, 1987. "What Works for Whom?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 11(4), pages 510-527, August.

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