Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates
When treatments may occur at different points in time, most evaluation methods assume – implicitly or explicitly – that all the information used by subjects about the occurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the “no anticipation” assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals about the date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empirical analysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment of information arrival (notification) and the start of the treatment can all be characterized by duration variables. Building on the "Timing of Events" approach, we show that the causal effects of notification and of the treatment on the outcome are identified. We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in France which provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers about their future treatment status. We find that notification has a significant and positive effect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard "no anticipation" assumption and rules out a "threat effect" of training programs in France.
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- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bozio, Antoine & Costa Dias, Mónica, 2015.
"Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes,"
Working Paper Series
2015:10, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bozio, Antoine & Costa Dias, Monica, 2014. "Policy Discontinuity and Duration Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 8450, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Gerard Van Den Berg & Antoine Bozio & Monica Costa Dias, 2013. "Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes," IFS Working Papers W13/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Giacomo De Giorgi, 2005. "Long-term effects of a mandatory multistage program: the New Deal for young people in the UK," IFS Working Papers W05/08, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Gerard J. van den Berg & Annette H. Bergemann & Marco Caliendo, 2009.
"The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 606-616, 04-05.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bergemann, Annette & Caliendo, Marco, 2008. "The effect of active labor market programs on not-yet treated unemployed individuals," Working Paper Series 2008:26, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bergemann, Annette & Caliendo, Marco, 2008. "The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals," IZA Discussion Papers 3825, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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