Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates
When treatments may occur at different points in time, most evaluation methods assume – implicitly or explicitly – that all the information used by subjects about the occurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the “no anticipation” assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals about the date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empirical analysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment of information arrival (notification) and the start of the treatment can all be characterized by duration variables. Building on the "Timing of Events" approach, we show that the causal effects of notification and of the treatment on the outcome are identified. We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in France which provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers about their future treatment status. We find that notification has a significant and positive effect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard "no anticipation" assumption and rules out a "threat effect" of training programs in France.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bozio, Antoine & Costa Dias, Mónica, 2015.
"Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes,"
Working Paper Series
2015:10, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- Gerard Van Den Berg & Antoine Bozio & Monica Costa Dias, 2013. "Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes," IFS Working Papers W13/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bozio, Antoine & Costa Dias, Monica, 2014. "Policy Discontinuity and Duration Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 8450, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Giacomo De Giorgi, 2005. "Long-term effects of a mandatory multistage program: the New Deal for young people in the UK," IFS Working Papers W05/08, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bergemann, Annette & Caliendo, Marco, 2008.
"The effect of active labor market programs on not-yet treated unemployed individuals,"
Working Paper Series
2008:26, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- Gerard J. van den Berg & Annette H. Bergemann & Marco Caliendo, 2009. "The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 606-616, 04-05.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Bergemann, Annette & Caliendo, Marco, 2008. "The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals," IZA Discussion Papers 3825, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.