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The specification of dynamic discrete-time two-state panel data models

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  • Tue Gorgens
  • Dean Hyslop

Abstract

This paper examines dynamic binary response and multi-spell duration model approaches to analyzing longitudinal discrete-time binary outcomes. Prototypical dynamic binary response models specify low-order Markovian state dependence and restrict the effects of observed and unobserved heterogeneity on the probability of transitioning into and out of a state to have the same magnitude and opposite signs. In contrast, multi-spell duration models typically allow for state-specific duration dependence, and allow the probability of entry into and exit from a state to vary flexibly. We show that both of these approaches are special cases within a general framework. We compare specific dynamic binary response and multi-spell duration models empirically using a case study of poverty transitions. In this example, both the specification of state dependence and the restrictions on the state-specific transition probabilities imposed by the simpler dynamic binary response models are severely rejected against the more flexible multi-spell duration models. Consistent with recent literature, we conclude that the standard dynamic binary response model is unacceptably restrictive in this context.

Suggested Citation

  • Tue Gorgens & Dean Hyslop, 2016. "The specification of dynamic discrete-time two-state panel data models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-631, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2016-631
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp631.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; transition data; binary response; duration analysis; event history analysis; initial conditions; random effects.;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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