Modelling low income transitions
We examine the determinants of low income transitions using first-order Markov models that control for initial conditions effects (those found to be poor in the base year may be a non-random sample) and for attrition (panel retention may also be non-random). Our econometric model is a form of endogeneous switching regression, and is fitted using simulated maximum likelihood methods. The estimates, derived from British panel data for the 1990s, indicate that there is substantial genuine state dependence in poverty. We also provide estimates of low income transition rates and lengths of poverty and non-poverty spells for persons of different types.
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- Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2002.
"Modelling Low Income Transitions,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
288, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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- Sarah Jarvis & Stephen P. Jenkins, 1997. "Marital Splits and Income Changes: Evidence for Britain," Papers iopeps97/26, Innocenti Occasional Papers, Economic Policy Series.
- Ann Huff Stevens, 1995.
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NBER Working Papers
5390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
- Lorenzo Cappellari, 2007.
"Earnings mobility among Italian low-paid workers,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 465-482, April.
- Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999.
"Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities,"
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
- Stewart, M.B. & Swaffield, J.K., 1997. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 495, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567.
- Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
- Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
- S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
- Sloane, P J & Theodossiou, I, 1996. "Earnings Mobility, Family Income and Low Pay," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 657-66, May.
- Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 1976.
"Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility,"
NBER Working Papers
0150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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