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Modelling low income transitions

  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Stephen P. Jenkins

    (ISER, University of Essex, UK)

We examine the determinants of low income transitions using first-order Markov models that control for initial conditions effects (those found to be poor in the base year may be a non-random sample) and for attrition (panel retention may also be non-random). The model estimates, derived from British panel data for the 1990s, indicate that there is substantial state dependence in poverty, separate from persistence induced by heterogeneity. We also provide estimates of low income transition rates and lengths of poverty and non-poverty spells for persons of different types. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 593-610

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:5:p:593-610
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  1. Devicienti, Francesco, 2002. "Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 61, Royal Economic Society.
  2. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  3. Stewart, M.B. & Swaffield, J.K., 1997. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 495, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Sloane, P J & Theodossiou, I, 1996. "Earnings Mobility, Family Income and Low Pay," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 657-66, May.
  5. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2002. "Modelling low income transitions," ISER Working Paper Series 2002-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  6. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567.
  7. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
  8. Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility," NBER Working Papers 0150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2001. "Earnings mobility among Italian low paid workers," ISER Working Paper Series 2001-13, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  10. Sarah Jarvis & Stephen P. Jenkins, 1997. "Marital Splits and Income Changes: Evidence for Britain," Innocenti Occasional Papers, Economic Policy Series iopeps97/26, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre.
  11. Atkinson, A B, 1987. "On the Measurement of Poverty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 749-64, July.
  12. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
  13. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
  14. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
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