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Modelling low pay transition probabilities, accounting for panel attrition, non-response, and initial conditions

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  • P. Jenkins, Stephen
  • Cappellari, Lorenzo

Abstract

We model annual low pay transition probabilities taking account of three potentially endogenous selections: two sample drop-out mechanisms (panel attrition, non-employment) and ‘initial conditions’ (base-year low pay status). This model, and variants that ignore one or more of these selection mechanisms, are fitted to data for men from the British Household Panel Survey. Tests of the ignorability of the endogenous selection mechanisms suggest that ‘economic’ selection mechanisms such as initial conditions and retention of employment are more important than the ‘survey’ selection mechanism (attrition). However, consistent with related US research, relatively simple models provide estimates of covariate effects that differ little from the estimates from the complicated models.

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  • P. Jenkins, Stephen & Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2004. "Modelling low pay transition probabilities, accounting for panel attrition, non-response, and initial conditions," ISER Working Paper Series 2004-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2004-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Arne Uhlendorff, 2006. "From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again?: A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 648, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Kanabar, Ricky, 2017. "In or out? Poverty dynamics among older individuals in the UK," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 509-553, October.
    3. Alexander Mosthaf & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2014. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: Which one provides better prospects for women?," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Christoph Wunder & Regina T. Riphahn, 2014. "The dynamics of welfare entry and exit amongst natives and immigrants," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 580-604.
    5. Stephani, Jens, 2012. "Wage growth and career patterns of German low-wage workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201201, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Mélise Jaud & Olivier Cadot & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann, 2013. "Do food scares explain supplier concentration? An analysis of EU agri-food imports," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(5), pages 873-890, December.
    7. Jones, Melanie K. & Jones, Richard J. & Murphy, Philip D. & Sloane, Peter J., 2007. "A Persistence Model of the National Minimum Wage," IZA Discussion Papers 2595, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Sanne Velthuis & Paul Sissons & Nigel Berkeley, 2019. "Do low-paid workers benefit from the urban escalator? Evidence from British cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(8), pages 1664-1680, June.
    9. Schnitzlein, Daniel D. & Stephani, Jens, 2016. "Locus of Control and low-wage mobility," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 164-177.
    10. Arnstein Aassve & Simon Burgess & Matt Dickson & Carol Propper, 2005. "Modelling Poverty by not Modelling Poverty: An Application of a Simultaneous Hazards Approach to the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 05/134, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    11. Sara Ayllón, 2013. "Understanding poverty persistence in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 201-233, June.
    12. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schnabel, Claus & Stephani, Jens, 2011. "Low-wage careers: Are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 43(3), pages 231-249.
    13. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Stephani, Jens, 2013. "Does it matter where you work? : employer characteristics and the wage growth of low-wage workers and higher-wage workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201304, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schnabel, Claus & Stephani, Jens, 2011. "Low-wage careers: Are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 43(3), pages 231-249.
    16. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    17. Yeosun Yoon & Heejung Chung, 2016. "New Forms of Dualization? Labour Market Segmentation Patterns in the UK from the Late 90s Until the Post-crisis in the Late 2000s," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 609-631, September.
    18. Aretz, Bodo & Gürtzgen, Nicole, 2012. "The Evolution of Wage Mobility in the German Low-Wage Sector - Is There Evidence for Increasing State Dependence?," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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