From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again?: A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics
This study analyzes the mobility between three labor market states: working in low paid jobs, working in higher paid jobs and not working. Using German panel data I estimate dynamic multinomial logit panel data models with random effects taking the initial conditions problem and potential endogeneity of panel attrition into account. In line with results from other countries, this first study on Germany finds true state dependence in low pay jobs and confirms previous results of state dependence in non-employment. Moreover, I find evidence for a "low pay no pay cycle", i.e. being low paid or not employed itself increases the probability of being in one of these states in the next year. However, compared to non working, being low paid does not have adverse effects on future employment prospects: the employment probability increases with low pay employment and the probability of being high paid seems to be higher for previously low paid workers. I find no evidence for endogenous panel attrition.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Muhleisen, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1994. "A panel analysis of job changes and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 793-801, April.
- Peter Haan & Arne Uhlendorff, 2006.
"Estimation of Multinomial Logit Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity Using Maximum Simulated Likelihood,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
573, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Peter Haan & Arne Uhlendorff, 2006. "Estimation of multinomial logit models with unobserved heterogeneity using maximum simulated likelihood," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(2), pages 229-245, June.
- Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
- Gong, Xiaodong & van Soest, Arthur & Villagomez, Elizabeth, 2000.
"Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico,"
IZA Discussion Papers
213, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Gong, Xiaodong & Van Soest, Arthur & Villagomez, Elizabeth, 2004. "Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-36, October.
- Gong, X. & van Soest, A.H.O. & Villagomez, E., 2000. "Mobility in the Urban Labor Market : A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico," Discussion Paper 2000-46, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Pierre-Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2005.
"Employment Dynamics of Married Women in Europe,"
273, RAND Corporation.
- Stewart, M.B. & Swaffield, J.K., 1997.
"Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
495, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Kenneth Train ., 2000.
"Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit,"
Economics Working Papers
E00-278, University of California at Berkeley.
- Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2004. "Is the Swiss Labor Market Segmented? An Analysis Using Alternative Approaches," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 18(1), pages 131-161, 03.
- Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1993. "Simulation-based inference : A survey with special reference to panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 5-33, September.
- Bernd Gorzig & Martin Gornig & Axel Werwatz, 2005. "Explaining Eastern Germany's Wage Gap: The Impact of Structural Change," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 449-464.
- Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou and Paul A. Ruud., 1993.
"Classical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using Simulation,"
Economics Working Papers
93-219, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A. & Ruud, Paul A., 1986. "Classical estimation methods for LDV models using simulation," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 40, pages 2383-2441 Elsevier.
- V.A. Hajivassiliou & P. A. Ruud, 1993. "Classical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using Simulation," Econometrics 9311002, EconWPA.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Paul A. Ruud, 1993. "Classical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using Simulation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1051, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A & Ruud, Paul A., 1993. "Classical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using Simulation," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3cg196fr, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Prowse, Victoria L., 2005. "State Dependence in a Multi-State Model of Employment Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 1623, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004.
"Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1232, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2004. "Modelling low pay transition probabilities, accounting for panel attrition, non-response, and initial conditions," ISER Working Paper Series 2004-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Stewart, Mark, 2006.
"The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low-Wage Employment,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
741, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
- Flaig, Gebhard & Licht, Georg & Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Testing for state dependence effects in a dynamic model of male unemployment behaviour," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-07, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Peter Haan, 2005. "State Dependence and Female Labor Supply in Germany: The Extensive and the Intensive Margin," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 538, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2002. "Maintenance of and Innovation in Long-Term Panel Studies: The Case of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 276, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Jones, Melanie K. & Jones, Richard J. & Murphy, Philip D. & Sloane, Peter J., 2005. "The Dynamics of the National Minimum Wage: Transitions Between Different Labour Market States," IZA Discussion Papers 1690, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2002. " Do the 'Working Poor' Stay Poor? An Analysis of Low Pay Transitions in Italy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 87-110, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp648. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.