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Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions

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  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Stephen P. Jenkins

Abstract

We model annual low pay transition probabilities taking account of three potentially endogenous selections: two sample drop-out mechanisms (panel attrition, non-employment) and ‘initial conditions’ (base-year low pay status). This model, and variants that ignore one or more of these selection mechanisms, are fitted to data for men from the British Household Panel Survey. Tests of the ignorability of the endogenous selection mechanisms suggest that ‘economic’ selection mechanisms such as initial conditions and retention of employment are more important than the ‘survey’ selection mechanism (attrition). However, consistent with related US research, relatively simple models provide estimates of covariate effects that differ little from the estimates from the complicated models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1232, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1232
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-473, March.
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    3. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pages 593-610.
    5. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
    6. Lee A. Lillard & Constantijn W. A. Panis, 1998. "Panel Attrition from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics: Household Income, Marital Status, and Mortality," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 437-457.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 129-137.
    8. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
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    12. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low Pay," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arnstein Aassve & Simon Burgess & Matt Dickson & Carol Propper, 2005. "Modelling Poverty by not Modelling Poverty: An Application of a Simultaneous Hazards Approach to the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 05/134, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schnabel, Claus & Stephani, Jens, 2009. "Low-wage careers: are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?," Discussion Papers 66, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    3. Arne Uhlendorff, 2006. "From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again?: A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 648, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Daniel D. Schnitzlein & Jens Stephani, 2013. "Locus of Control and Low-Wage Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 589, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    6. Sara Ayllón, 2013. "Understanding poverty persistence in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 201-233, June.
    7. Mélise Jaud & Olivier Cadot & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann, 2013. "Do food scares explain supplier concentration? An analysis of EU agri-food imports," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, pages 873-890.
    8. Alexander Mosthaf & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2014. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: Which one provides better prospects for women?," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schnabel, Claus & Stephani, Jens, 2011. "Low-wage careers: Are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 43(3), pages 231-249.
    10. Christoph Wunder & Regina T. Riphahn, 2014. "The dynamics of welfare entry and exit amongst natives and immigrants," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, pages 580-604.
    11. Stephani, Jens, 2012. "Wage growth and career patterns of German low-wage workers," IAB Discussion Paper 201201, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Jones, Richard J. & Murphy, Philip D. & Sloane, Peter J., 2007. "A Persistence Model of the National Minimum Wage," IZA Discussion Papers 2595, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Aretz, Bodo & Gürtzgen, Nicole, 2012. "The Evolution of Wage Mobility in the German Low-Wage Sector - Is There Evidence for Increasing State Dependence?," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Stephani, Jens, 2013. "Does it matter where you work? : employer characteristics and the wage growth of low-wage workers and higher-wage workers," IAB Discussion Paper 201304, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    Keywords

    transition probabilities; low pay; attrition; non-response; ignorability;

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