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Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: an application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK


  • Aassve, Arnstein
  • Burgess, Simon
  • Dickson, Matt
  • Propper, Carol


We pursue an economic approach to analysing poverty. This requires a focus on the variables that individuals can influence, such as forming or dissolving a union or having children. We argue that this indirect approach to modelling poverty is the right way to bring economic tools to bear on the issue. In our implementation of this approach, we focus on endogenous demographic and employment transitions as the driving forces behind changes in poverty. We construct a dataset covering event histories over a long window and estimate five simultaneous hazards with unrestricted correlated heterogeneity. The model fits the demographic and poverty data reasonably well. We investigate the important parameters and processes for differences in individuals’ poverty likelihood. Employment, and particularly employment of disadvantaged women with children, is important. poverty dynamics; poverty transitions; simultaneous hazards.

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  • Aassve, Arnstein & Burgess, Simon & Dickson, Matt & Propper, Carol, 2005. "Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: an application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK," ISER Working Paper Series 2005-26, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2005-26

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    6. Simon Burgess & Carol Propper & Matt Dickson, 2006. "The analysis of poverty data with endogenous transitions," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, March.
    7. Martin Biewen, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are there Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 429, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    14. Peter Gottschalk & Sheldon Danziger, 2003. "Wage Inequality, Earnings Inequality and Poverty in the U.S. Over the Last Quarter of the Twentieth Century," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 560, Boston College Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri, 2007. "The Dynamics and Persistence of Poverty: Evidence from Italy," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 63, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    2. Michael Fertig & Marcus Tamm, 2010. "Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 150-168, May.
    3. Eirini Andriopoulou & Panagiotis Tsakloglou, "undated". "The determinants of poverty transitions in Europe and the role of duration dependence," DEOS Working Papers 1119, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    4. FUSCO Alessio & ISLAM Nizamul, 2012. "Understanding the drivers of low income transitions in Luxembourg," LISER Working Paper Series 2012-31, LISER.
    5. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri & Mariacristina Rossi, 2014. "The Persistence Of Income Poverty And Lifestyle Deprivation: Evidence From Italy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 246-278, July.
    6. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    7. Sara Ayllón, 2013. "Understanding poverty persistence in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 201-233, June.
    8. José Arranz & Olga Cantó, 2012. "Measuring the effect of spell recurrence on poverty dynamics—evidence from Spain," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(2), pages 191-217, June.
    9. Francesco Devicienti & Fernando Groisman & Ambra Poggi, 2009. "Informality and poverty: Are these processes dynamically interrelated? Evidence from Argentina," Working Papers 146, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    10. Hendrik Thiel & Stephan L. Thomsen, 2015. "Individual Poverty Paths and the Stability of Control-Perception," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 794, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Arranz, José Maria & Cantó, Olga, 2010. "Measuring the Effect of Spell Recurrence on Poverty Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 072, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Martin Biewen, 2009. "Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1095-1116.
    13. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Polin, Veronica & Raitano, Michele, 2009. "Dimensione e dinamica della povertà nell’Unione Europea dopo l’allargamento: un’analisi comparata delle determinanti dei movimenti delle famiglie
      [Poverty and inequality dynamics in the enlarged Eu
      ," MPRA Paper 25567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Miguel Sanchez-Martinez & Philip Davis, 2014. "A review of the economic theories of poverty," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 435, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    16. Kim, Jungho & Aassve, Arnstein, 2006. "Fertility and its Consequence on Family Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 2162, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    17. Luis Beccaria & Roxana Maurizio & Ana Fernández & Paula Monsalvo & Mariana Álvarez, 2013. "Urban poverty and labor market dynamics in five Latin American countries: 2003–2008," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(4), pages 555-580, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty


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