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The determinants of poverty transitions in Europe and the role of duration dependence

  • Andriopoulou, Eirini
  • Tsakloglou, Panagiotis

The paper examines the mobility into and out of poverty and identifies the determinants of poverty spell beginnings and endings in 14 European Countries for the period 1994-2000, using the European Community Household Panel. The first part of the paper offers a snapshot of poverty mobility in Europe calculating the entry and exit poverty rates, along with the conditional, to the duration of spell, exit probabilities and re-entry rates to poverty. In the second part observed characteristics of the household and the household head are examined in order to identify the determinants of the transitions into and out of poverty, taking into account unobserved heterogeneity across individuals and duration dependence. Multivariate discrete hazard analysis is used and the duration dependence is captured with time dummies. In almost all the 14 EU Member-States examined, the probability of exiting (re-entering) poverty is inversely related to the duration of the poverty (non-poverty) spell. The effect is significant to the inclusion of variables capturing observed heterogeneity (socioeconomic characteristics of the household head and the household and particular employment and demographic events), as well as to the inclusion of a random effects factor capturing the unobserved heterogeneity across individuals. With regards to the socio-economic variables, in most countries, households headed by young or elderly individuals, as well as households with dependent children are in higher risk of staying longer in poverty. In many cases, event variables improve the model significantly and highlight the mechanisms that bring individuals into and out of poverty.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30659.

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Date of creation: 03 May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30659
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  1. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March.
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  4. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri & Mariacristina Rossi, 2010. "The Dynamics and Persistence of Poverty: Evidence from Italy," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 173, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  5. Ondrich, Jan & Rhody, Stephen E., 1999. "Multiple spells in the Prentice-Gloeckler-Meyer likelihood with unobserved heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 139-144, May.
  6. Arnstein Aassve & Simon Burgess & Matt Dickson & Carol Propper, 2005. "Modelling Poverty by not Modelling Poverty: An Application of a Simultaneous Hazards Approach to the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 05/134, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
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  8. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2002. "Modelling low income transitions," ISER Working Paper Series 2002-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  9. Pablo Antolín & Thai-Thanh Dang & Howard Oxley, 1999. "Poverty Dynamics in Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 212, OECD Publishing.
  10. Olga Cantó, 2003. "Finding out the Routes to Escape Poverty: The Relevance of Demographic vs. Labor Market Events in Spain," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(4), pages 569-588, December.
  11. Ann Huff Stevens, 1995. "Climbing Out of Poverty, Falling Back In: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty over Multiple Spells," NBER Working Papers 5390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Devicienti, Francesco, 2001. "Poverty persistence in Britain: a multivariate analysis using the BHPS, 1991-1997," ISER Working Paper Series 2001-02, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  13. Biewen, Martin, 2003. "Who Are the Chronic Poor? Evidence on the Extent and the Composition of Chronic Poverty in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 779, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  15. Annelies Debels & Leen Vandecasteele, 2008. "The Time Lag In Annual Household-Based Income Measures: Assessing And Correcting The Bias," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(1), pages 71-88, 03.
  16. Duncan, Greg J, et al, 1993. "Poverty Dynamics in Eight Countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 215-34.
  17. Ambra Poggi, 2007. "Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 53-72, April.
  18. Muffels, Ruud & Fouarge, Didier & Dekker, Ronald, 2000. "Longitudinal Poverty and Income Inequality A Comparative Panel Study for The Netherlands, Germany and the UK," MPRA Paper 13298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Stephen P. Jenkins & Christian Schluter, 2003. "Why Are Child Poverty Rates Higher in Britain than in Germany?: A Longitudinal Perspective," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(2).
  20. Van Kerm, Philippe, 2004. "Une évaluation économétrique des flux vers et hors de la pauvreté en Belgique," IRISS Working Paper Series 2004-04, IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.
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  24. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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