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Does poverty trap rural Malagasy households?

Author

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  • Frédéric Gaspart

    (Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Anne-Claire Thomas

    (UMR 225 DIAL, IRD, Université Paris Dauphine, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

(english) This paper studies the determinants of poverty dynamics in several rural areas from Madagascar. A particular attention is devoted to testing if rural poverty persistence in Madagascar could be explained by a vicious circle leading to a poverty trap. Annual poverty transitions retrieved from an original household panel data survey covering the 1996-2006 periods show that differences in household and environment characteristics are clearly associated with di¤erences in poverty transitions probabilities. Poverty-vulnerable households have higher dependency ratio and are less educated. They also show different income-generating activities pattern. They cultivate less market-oriented crops and have more vulnerable activities such as agricultural wage work. A Markovian poverty transition model is used to evaluate the role of past poverty in this situation. Past poverty is allowed to have both an intercept and a slope effect on poverty transitions probabilities. Our results show that a substantial share of the di¤erences in household poverty transitions probabilities is attributable to past poverty status. These results encourage the development of social protection to prevent households to fall into a poverty trap as well as speciffic measures to encourage paths out of poverty traps. _________________________________ (français) Cet article étudie les déterminants de la dynamique de la pauvreté dans plusieurs zones rurales de Madagascar. Une attention particulière est portée à l’identification d’un éventuel effet délétère de la pauvreté passée sur la pauvreté future pouvant conduire à un cercle vicieux de perpétuation de la pauvreté. Le papier se base sur l’étude des transitions annuelles sur et sous le seuil de pauvreté observées sur un panel de ménages ruraux malgaches entre 1996 et 2006. Un modèle markovien est utilisé pour évaluer le rôle des caractéristiques des ménages, de l’environnement et de la pauvreté passée dans la probabilité de passer sur ou sous le seuil de pauvreté. Les résultats montrent que certaines caractéristiques des ménages et de l'environnement sont clairement associées à différences dans les probabilités de transitions sur et sous le seuil de pauvreté. En particulier, les ménages vulnérables à la pauvreté ont un rapport de dépendance plus élevé, sont moins éduqués et ont une composition de revenus différentes. Ils sont notamment moins orientés vers les cultures agricoles et plus orientés vers des activités précaires comme le salariat agricole. Un effet délétère de la pauvreté passée sur le risque d’être pauvre dans le futur est également mis en évidence. Il passe à la fois par un effet de pente et un effet de niveau. Ces résultats soulignent la nécessite de mettre en place des politiques spécifiques contre la vulnérabilité à la pauvreté, d’une part, et contre la pauvreté de long terme d’ autre part.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Gaspart & Anne-Claire Thomas, 2012. "Does poverty trap rural Malagasy households?," Working Papers DT/2012/07, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201207
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    Cited by:

    1. Swati Dutta, 2021. "Structural and stochastic transitions of poverty using household panel data in India," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 8-31, March.
    2. Giulia Bettin & Claudia Pigini & Alberto Zazzaro, 2020. "Financial Inclusion and Poverty Transitions: An Empirical Analysis for Italy," CSEF Working Papers 577, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    3. Massimiliano Agovino & Massimiliano Cerciello & Aniello Ferraro & Antonio Garofalo, 2022. "A Regional Perspective on Social Exclusion in European Regions: Context, Trends and Policy Implications," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 409-433, July.
    4. Zhang, Tong & Hu, Wuyang & Zhu, Zhanguo & Penn, Jerrod, 2023. "Consumer preference for food products addressing multiple dimensions of poverty: Evidence from China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Alessio Fusco & Philippe Van Kerm, 2023. "Measuring poverty persistence," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber (ed.), Research Handbook on Measuring Poverty and Deprivation, chapter 18, pages 192-200, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Ronny Correa-Quezada & Diego Fernando García-Vélez & María de la Cruz Del Río-Rama & José Álvarez-García, 2018. "Poverty Traps in the Municipalities of Ecuador: Empirical Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Brinkmann, Katja & Kübler, Daniel & Liehr, Stefan & Buerkert, Andreas, 2021. "Agent-based modelling of the social-ecological nature of poverty traps in southwestern Madagascar," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    8. Li Zhou & Jie Sun & Wuyang Hu & Yu Zhang, 2023. "Asset Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing: Disaster‐coping Strategies in Noncontiguous and Contiguous Destitute Areas," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(2), pages 223-250, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty dynamics; state dependence; panel data; rural Madagascar; Dynamique de la pauvreté; données longitudinales; Madagascar.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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